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Survivor: Exile Island – Advice for the Remaining Fiveby Jeffrey Clinard -- 05/03/2006
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Cirie and Terry are the two biggest power players in the game, and both went after the person they considered their biggest threat in the last episode. Of course, each had a different idea of what a threat was. Terry went after Aras, who threatened his ability to win immunity. Cirie went after Courtney in order to rid the game of jury bait to better her chances of making it to the finals via the vote.
Actually, I think the odds of either of them getting to the finals are not good. Cirie has shown an inability to win physical challenges, and final immunity is usually an endurance test. This poses a problem for her, since she's a power player and is popular, and thus unlikely to be carried to the end by another player. She made the odds a little bit better by getting rid of Courtney (who could be considered good jury bait), but her problem is finding somebody willing to make and keep a final two pact with her.
Terry, on the other hand, is a challenge threat, and is threatening to get to the end based on immunity alone. If he wins the next challenge, he's in the final three, as he can use hidden immunity when there are four. In any case, he's in the final four, and could win immunity next time even if he's forced to use the hidden immunity idol at the next Tribal Council. More interesting is the possibility he wins the next two immunity challenges. If he manages to pull that off, he suddenly has bargaining power. He wouldn't need both hidden immunity and individual immunity, and could bargain either one away for a vote against the target of his choice. Ideally he should give away the hidden immunity idol to set up a possible ricochet vote.
The reward challenge once again split the tribe for a period, allowing people to plot in private. Aras was sent back to Exile Island, and both of the other groups schemed on their respective islands. However, the main scheming was done at the main camp, and the three votes that sent Courtney home came from Aras, Cirie, and Danielle, who were all separated after the reward challenge.
The end game is in sight, and each player should be positioning themselves to get to the end of the game and win it. What should each player be doing? It's advice for the remaining five.
Shane: You have problems. Your alliance left you hanging, and if Cirie continues her plan to get rid of the best jury opponents, you're next on the chopping block. Your best option is to run the reverse game of Cirie, and convince Aras, Terry, and Danielle that Cirie is too dangerous to be left in the game as she can win over a jury. Or you could try to get Aras booted, working with Danielle and Terry. Otherwise, you might need immunity to remain in the game.
Aras: Your game should be based on who wins immunity in the next round. If you are wearing it, try to vote out Terry and let him burn up the idol and let the vote fall where it may. If anybody else is wearing it, you need to make a new deal with Shane and Terry. Offer up a deal to get rid of Cirie or Danielle, probably Cirie as she's a schemer and could win a jury battle. The benefits are that Shane avoids getting voted off (or, if he is wearing immunity, gets allies again), and Terry keeps his hidden immunity idol and makes the final three no matter what. If you don't, Terry is likely to be your downfall in the game.
Terry: You started to put together an alliance, only to have Danielle jump out and vote out your only other ally, Courtney. Your best bet on the political angle is to try to bargain with fellow outsider Shane. Not only is he your best chance to win against the jury, he's also vulnerable. Then you need to pull in Aras, telling him that you have the hidden immunity idol and your vote will be directed at him unless he forms a new deal. You don't have a lot of options, and blackmail might be a strategy to try out.
Danielle: I think you made a mistake voting out Courtney, as Terry's alliance did not include Aras, who is Terry's target. Plus, his final three deal included good jury bait in both Courtney (annoying) and Terry (outsider). However, we need to deal with what is, and that means taking Shane out next or working out a new deal to take out either Aras or Cirie next. Shane is the best jury bait, so you might try to work out a deal with him and Terry. That would improve your position in the long term, as each of them is a better jury opponent than your current allies.
Cirie: You've done a fine job of scheming in the series, but you have to consider the end game. While you would love to have Terry take out Aras via hidden immunity and set up a final four of Terry, Shane, Danielle, and yourself, you need to remember that Aras is unlikely to be a pawn. The best way to keep Aras in line is to convince your group to vote out Shane next, ensuring that Terry doesn't use the idol to remove one of your core members.
Courtney: What went wrong? Cirie decided you were a threat to her game since the others might prefer you in the final two over anybody else. She managed to talk Danielle and Aras into a final three agreement, and you were the victim.
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Jeffrey Clinard has been writing about Survivor since the second series, and has published over 100 articles about the show and given advice to nearly 150 different Survivors on Reality News Online. He can be reached at email@example.com.
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