Survivor: Exile Island – Who Will Go in Episode 12?

Last week my daughter was correct for the first time this season (it's amazing what ever-decreasing odds will do for a person's chances, huh?). Additionally, I got the correct boot pick for the fourth or fifth week in a row, which will go a long way towards remedying my dismally poor showing at the beginning of the season--

BA-BA-BUUMMMMM!!!

What? What's that I heard? Was it the car curse? Yes, it seems that Terry is out of the running for the role of ultimate Survivor. I've seen some impressive plays by Terry, but I have yet to see someone who can defeat the dreaded car curse. If you're wondering what I'm talking about, nobody in the history of this show has ever won the car and also won the game. The closest we've seen so far is when Rob won the car on All-Stars and gave a second car to the eventual winner Amber. However, she did not win the car herself, so I don't include her as part of the car curse. All of this comes back to the fact that I think Terry is not long for the game. Yes, he has the not-so-hidden immunity, but I'm getting a feeling like that might finally be used up this time around.

Nevertheless, Terry is guaranteed a final four spot with the idol, so he’s safe this time around. He’s kind of like a yellow-shirted ensign on the original Star Trek. You know he’s not going to get killed off in this episode because there are plenty of redshirts still lingering around. But he likely still won’t make much of a difference in the episode. The remnants of Casaya, however, have no such guarantee, so it will be interesting to see how they cope with the increasing pressure as they sit around in their red shirts, their eyes darting around looking for stray Gorns.

A quick note on Cirie’s masterful strokes in the last episode. Despite her well-crafted and perfectly carried out plan, I’m still on the fence about whether Cirie picked the right target or not. Some among us at RNO seem to think she did, and others seem to think she should have targeted Shane. I can definitely see her reasoning. She feels that she can beat anybody in the final two, so she needs to get rid of those unlikable targets that other likeable Survivors would take to the finals ahead of her. The problem with this reasoning is that I don’t think anybody in their right mind would take Cirie with them to the final two. So even if she manages to get rid of the Unlikables (i.e. Courtney and Shane), she’s still a less desirable final two opponent than Aras, Terry, and Danielle. You’d have to be insane to go up against Cirie in the finals (which would actually make Shane and Courtney a good pair to keep around).

This leads to the continuation of Cirie’s strategy into this week. If her strategy truly is to get rid of the Undesirables, then Shane is the next on the list. He was not a part of the inner voting block of Cirie, Aras, and Danielle in the last episode, so unless he comes up with some type of counter-strategy—

*cough* *cough*

Sorry, I choked on my words when I typed that…

…As I was saying, unless he comes up with some type of counter-strategy (*snicker*), he’s next on the list to be dismissed by the recently revealed Cirie/Aras/Danielle triumvirate. Of course, if the previews are any indication, it appears that this week will be the standard family visit. So he might just see his son, break down again, and decide he wants to go home right away.

The wrench for Cirie’s plan might be Terry’s immunity idol. If he ends up losing individual immunity for the first time, which I’m certain is bound to happen any day now, he’ll have to pull out the idol. And if the others aren’t savvy to this, he may use it to boot Aras instead.

But if Cirie’s crew are smart, they will realize this and work their votes to adjust for this. One of the triumvirate plus Shane will vote for Terry. Terry will throw one vote towards Aras. And the other two will vote for Shane. Terry’s immunity idol will be knocked out. Shane, with the same amount of votes as Terry, will then be voted out. It’s kind of a tricky situation, but after what Cirie pulled off last week, I can see her recognizing the situation and making this work. The only two that I don’t see being affected by the votes this week are the current non-threats of Cirie and Danielle.

My daughter tried to trick me this week when making her picks. After the Magic Blankie released the final five names to the ground, she stared at me and shrugged. I pointed to all of the names, and she headed towards Danielle’s. At the last second she brought her hand back and walked over to grab Shane’s name instead… Baby-Psyche! Still, I’m excited because for the second week in a row she agrees with me. What a smart little girl.

So the picks for this week? I’m pretty sure Shane is going. Terry could change things up with his immunity idol and send Aras home, but my daughter and I are still sticking with our Shane pick. If Shane gets immunity? I guess I’ll say Aras, since he’s the next biggest challenge threat (who wouldn’t already be immune in some way or another).

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Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He would like to point out that if Shane does indeed get booted then the final four will consist of one member each from the original four tribes. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.

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