Survivor: Exile Island – Who Will Go in Episode 13?

The end looms ahead for our Survivors, and I'm excited because we've reached a stage where any number of events could predict an alternate outcome for all but one of them. The only truly safe player at the moment is the ever-immune Terry. And depending on how he plays his immunity this week, we could see any of the other three heading to the land of free snacks and showers (henceforth known as jury duty).

I've had several people email me this week wondering why Terry thinks his immunity idol will work if they were told earlier that it could only take them to the final four. I too thought that was the case. But upon deeper reflection, I do vaguely recall when Terry retrieved the idol that he remarked that he could use it "through" the final four (while reading the directions for its use). He also seemed genuinely surprised while he read it. But I suppose that means the final four is his final opportunity to use it. It's kind of like an expiration date on a coupon. Technically it expires on that date, but most places will still accept it as long as you use it by that date.

Whatever the case, I believe the outcome of this Thursday's show will be primarily dependent on how and why Terry uses his immunity. Even if the Aras/Cirie/Danielle triumvirate is aware of Terry's idol (which I'm sure they all are), they will still manipulate the outcome of their own self-destruction by how they each respond to his immunity use. Likewise, Terry can affect the outcome depending on whether or not he chooses to go for individual immunity and then whether or not he chooses to distribute the said immunity should he win.

Confusing enough yet? Okay, let's delve into the scenarios then. The most likely outcome seems to be Terry and Danielle teaming up against Cirie and Aras. In last week's preview we saw Danielle stating that she felt it was time to join with Terry. And I think that she probably will indeed align herself with Terry. If that's the case, then who do they target? Cirie or Aras? Both would be difficult to win against in the final two. The immunity challenge may end up determining their targets for them.

If Terry decides to purposefully throw this immunity in order to use his idol, then Aras is the next most likely to win immunity. That would leave Cirie as the clear target for Danielle and Terry. If anybody else wins, then Danielle and Terry's target would be Aras.

Of course, Terry would be a dope to not try to win immunity. If either he or Danielle were to win immunity, then they could choose among Aras and Cirie, being both immune from the vote (assuming Terry is smart and gives Danielle his immunity necklace or hidden idol). Of course, that may be assuming a lot, given that he's bungled his game strategically several times already (i.e. voting Dan off and not giving Nick the immunity idol).

We must also consider the possibility that Danielle will either change her mind or that Terry will not trust her a second time (since she already burned him when she changed her vote and turned on Courtney). If that's the case, then Danielle may be the one targeted. If Aras were to win immunity then the choice would be between Cirie and Danielle. Since Cirie would likely be easy to beat in the final three challenge, I would imagine that Danielle would be the one for the men to target in this round.

Ultimately, however, I think Danielle will side with Terry, thinking that he'll give her an immunity. That puts Aras on the outs. But there is the possibility that Terry won't give up immunity. In fact, the more that I think about it the more I'm convinced he's going to hoard his immunities. That would lead to a possible tie vote – Aras versus Danielle. Will the Purple Rock of Death make an appearance? I think not. We haven't seen anybody get Paschaled since... well, Paschal.

The new tiebreaker seems to be the fire-building challenge. If it comes to that, then Aras would probably *ahem* smoke Danielle. And if Aras wins immunity? Then perhaps we have a Cirie versus Danielle challenge. Now that's one that Danielle could win.

Last week my daughter picked her second correct Survivor in a row with Shane's departure. This week, she was her normal delighted self when the Magic Survivor Blankie appeared. She literally hopped up and down when she saw it. After the release of names she wasted no time in grabbing Danielle's name. Then for good measure she picked Aras' name, should Danielle win immunity.

So what are my final picks this week? It's a tough call. My daughter says Danielle. But there are so many scenarios and so many possible uses of that immunity idol and necklace. I suppose I see Terry's stinginess coming out, causing a tie vote. So I'll agree with my daughter again and say Danielle will go to jury duty after losing the tiebreaker, unless Aras has immunity. In that case I suppose I'll have to say goodbye to Cirie, who would most surely lose to Danielle in a tiebreak challenge.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor articles:

Wesley is an aspiring writer and superhero from Tulsa, OK. His head hurts. No seriously, all this analysis. Where's the Excedrin? He can be reached with questions, comments, and snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.

Be sure to sign up for our e-mail update so you can stay informed about new articles on the site! And take a look at the rest of the site. You can find all of our recaps and other info on this show at the Survivor: Exile Island page, and take a look at our The Amazing Race 8 page and our Apprentice: Martha Stewart page. You can even buy reality show stuff at our Reality TV Store!

For more news about Survivor, be sure to check out SirLinksALot: Survivor and Survivor Fever!