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Survivor: Exile Island – Who Will Go and Who Will Win in the Finale?by Wesley Rice -- 05/14/2006
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Those buggers over on CBS sure like to tease, don't they? Here I was thinking that I'd only have to predict the order for the last three, and now I'm once again stuck with a final four prediction, coupled with a possibly humbling change from last week's prediction.
At any rate, since the final four will be final three within a matter of minutes (after the obligatory 15-minute recap introduction of the entire season), I won't waste any time getting through to final three either. Last week I predicted that Danielle would lose in a tiebreak challenge to Aras if Terry got the immunity and refused to share individual immunity with her. I also included a footnote that if Aras were to win immunity (as he did) then the vote would be tied between Cirie and Danielle (which it was).
However, this is where my prediction gets iffy. I figured that Cirie would be going home since Danielle would surely beat her in a fire challenge. But this last episode we saw two things that have changed my mind. First, we saw the formerly phyllophobic Cirie messing with leaves twigs and other things to create fire for the first time. Then we saw the preview clip for next week which clearly showed Cirie's fire blazing with much more abandon than Danielle's fire.
Now I know that the editors have done this to us many times before, showing us things in the previews to mislead us. Indeed, in his Survivor Insider article this week, RNO associate editor Mike DeGeorge believes that's precisely what they're trying to do and that Danielle will win the challenge. I'm not so certain. Remember last year when they managed to show the individual immunity necklace on Rafe during the preview for the final show?
In that case they just got sloppy, and I think they've done the same thing here. Cirie's flame was far ahead of Danielle's flame, and at that rate I don't think there was a chance that she could fall behind. So I change my prediction from last week and claim that Cirie will beat Danielle in the tiebreak, sending Danielle to jury duty in fourth place.
That leaves us with a final three of Cirie, Aras, and Terry. The manipulating mama, the young jock, and the older jock. I'm reservedly thrilled about this group because it includes two of the four (of Bruce, Cirie, Dan, and Terry) that I had predicted in our season-opening RNO roundtable article would make it to the final four. Of those four I had predicted Terry to win it all, which is a very real possibility, but will it happen?
The final three will bring about some physical challenge. Usually it's an endurance challenge, but from the previews it appears there might actually be some scrambling involved. Whatever the case may be, this is the point where Cirie will fall out. Whether it's Aras or Terry who wins the challenge, either of them will be faced with the decision whether or not to take Cirie.
This is where being well-liked will bite Cirie in the tushie. Terry will weigh the option between Cirie and Aras and decide that he has a better chance in the finals against Aras. This is also where having Danielle around would make a difference. If she was still in the game, Terry would take her without a moment's hesitation.
If Aras wins immunity, we could very well see a replay of Survivor: The Australian Outback as RNO editor-in-chief David Bloomberg examined in detail in an earlier article. In summary of that article, Aras (Colby) will be faced with the decision to take the well-like Cirie (Tina) or the older sometimes jerk Terry (Keith) with him to the finals. However, I think that in this case Aras will avoid the Hall of Shame decision that cost Colby $900,000. Yes, he's talked about final two with Cirie, but his response to her when she brought it up was hesitant at best. Aras may be impetuous, but he's no fool, and he'll take Terry to the finals if he wins immunity.
This is tough, because I really would love to see Cirie win. But as I've been saying for a while now, the others would have to be crazy to bring her to the final two. I also really wanted to see Kathy win in Survivor: Marquesas, and the same thing happened to her there. She was just too well-liked to make a final two appearance.
So, with the girls out of the way, how will the final two play out? What will the jury have to say? Austin will either ask a question or make a statement about perseverance and then throw his vote to Terry with the reasoning that Terry won so many immunities. Sally will ask something boring like “why do you deserve the million dollars?” She'll also vote Terry. Bruce will make a statement about maturity and respect. He'll vote Terry.
Courtney will go off on how she was double-crossed and deserves to be in the final two. Ultimately, though, she won't blame the double-cross on Aras. She'll vote for him. Shane will do his Mick Jagger strut around tribal council. Then he'll blather some nonsense about maintaining tribal loyalties and vote for Aras. Cirie will giggle for about an hour until she sends her vote Aras's way.
That leaves the decision with Danielle. And for the first time in three seasons, I don't feel confident about the winner of Survivor. Last season I correctly picked Danni Boatwright. The previous season I correctly predicted Tom Westman. But Danielle's vote is tough to calculate. On one side, she allied with Aras for a long time and has a connection there. But on the other hand, she's recently sided with Terry and may resent Aras siding with Cirie instead of her at the final four.
As I started this article, I was convinced that Aras would pull out the win. Now that I review the possibilities, however, I'm leaning more and more towards Terry. He was my pick from the beginning of the season, and I suppose it would be poetically just for him to win it all at this point. So even though this forty-six year old has shown all the maturity of a twelve year old in the last few weeks, I think he will once again overcome the odds and win Survivor: Exile Island in a tight 4-3 vote.
In her final prediction of the season my daughter once again got excited, dancing as I got out the Magic Survivor Blankie. Upon release of the names she raced to pick up Terry's name... uh, okay. Then she went to grab Aras's name. Um, sweetheart? Are you even bothering to think about this? Then Danielle's name. Then Cirie's. So apparently, she believes that the guys are going first. Oh well, I– wait! What's this?
She grabbed all of the names out of my hand and crushed them together in her hands...tighter...tighter. Then she handed them back to me. Ah, I see. She has an overly developed sense of fairness. She thinks the four remaining Survivors will call a truce and split the money four ways. The winner of the show will be Cirdan Teras.
So, in summary, I've made a last second change to my prediction. The fellow in the picture at the top of this article will come in second and Terry will take home the million. Will this change of heart continue my streak predicting winners, or should I have gone with my first impression? Tune in with me Sunday night for the answer and the winner on Survivor: Exile Island!
If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor articles:
Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He looked up the term phyllophobic because he was tired of everyone saying leafophobia. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.
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