Strategic Overview of Survivor, the Finale: The Exile of Strategy

There’s not so much that can be said about the last episode of Survivor: Missed Opportunities concerning the last three days of the game compared to the weeks before.

For those three who did not win, all made strategic missteps which could have cost them the win. Terry’s (“Terri” if your name is Danielle) happened weeks ago, when right after the merge the ex-La Mina could have laid a trap that could have knocked out Aras (“Aris” if you’re Danielle) right then and there and probably would have prompted a switch by Bruce, giving Terry and his pirates the majority. Instead, Terry gambled that he could win enough crucial immunity challenges… and he did – save one, and it cost him the game. As he ruefully admitted, he put his fate in the hands of others; what he may not understand is by acting much earlier he could have left his fate in his own hands.

Cirie’s mistaken send-off of Courtney rather than Shane has been reviewed elsewhere but note that even with proper execution (leaving Courtney to beat Terry on the final challenge since it seems unlikely Cirie could have) she still would have needed a Terry defeat to get in front of the jury. Danielle’s mistake was the most basic, even if it may have made the least difference in the game: why did she make any deal at all with Terry?

If Danielle – who makes the lead standard of strategic denseness among former winners, Sandra, look golden – had thought things through, she would have seen that Terry had no choice but to depend on her. The only thing he had of value for her, a promise to take her in front of the jury, he would have to commit to anyway because she was the only one he could beat. She didn’t have to give him anything and he still would have done that for her. So she shouldn’t have made any such promises, and then maybe Terry would have voted for her, not feeling betrayed. Given she picked up Shane’s throwaway vote, and Sally said she was open-minded (it would have been nice for Jeff Probst to ask her why she decided as she did, but he seemed to have taken a page from Courtney’s book and used most of his questions as a means of group therapy), who knows, she might have been able to pull it off with Bruce’s vote in her pocket.

Which brings us to Aras, who played an underappreciated game. How much of the strategy was his and Cirie’s is unknown, but he appears to have contributed even as he credited Cirie in post-show interviews. He also testified he was aware of the bounceback vote that could have ended his game life on numerous occasions. And he knew the right thing to say to get Danielle to take him in front of the jury, making an empty threat of voting against her (joined by Cirie, who wouldn’t have) – because apparently Terry already had four votes against Danielle, as the bitterness of Shane and Courtney were enough for them to disdain Danielle.

But perhaps Aras’ most subtle move came in Danielle’s stated reason why she chose him rather than Terry. She thought with each she had the same chance of winning. Given her limited ability to think strategically, it is conceivable she actually thought she had a chance against Aras, but she also may have been reluctant to admit what became obvious to the others – she would lose against either. If so, she chose Aras because of “loyalty.” In other words, knowing she would lose, she chose the person she would rather see win the million bucks, and she preferred Aras because he had stayed part of the group and was friendly with her from the beginning.

We do have to recognize potentially that Aras’ win could have been heavily dependent on luck. Had Terry not won immunity challenges like they were going out of style, would Aras have successfully lobbied for strategies that would have minimized the impact of the bounceback vote on him? Conversely, would his fellow allies have plotted to sandbag him in any event? In other words, would his own skill have saved him, or would it have been the lack of skill of his allies, or would he have been saved at all? Setting up such a situation is not to be underestimated, since it’s now apparent that, of the final four, two would have taken Aras, and he would have beaten both (Danielle, obviously, and Cirie because he would have the three ex-La Mina votes and Courtney, smarting over being betrayed before she could betray). Only his not winning the challenge when he did or Terry winning the last would have kept him from victory – it’s hard to do a better set-up job than that.

These questions are relevant as I decide whether Aras’ performance deserves placement on this list of the tops of all-time. To make the struggle more concrete, did Aras put up a performance like Tom’s, a winner but not worthy to make the list because so little other than very basic strategy and opponents’ mistakes allowed him to win? Or was it more like a Jenna M., who marginally makes the list because she did effectively latch onto Rob C. when the opportunity presented itself, made a good move at the end, and knew when to take off her clothes to win friends and influence enemies?

In the end, I must disappoint him. Maybe Aras was making some good plays here or there, or would have, but not enough of them were shown if they were there. Sorry, Aras, there was a little too much good fortune and a few too many opponents’ mistakes that got you the win for you to make it on the list. And, for those of you keeping score, I had Aras as my fifth choice in the preseason, with Terry third and Cirie and Danielle not even in the jury.

I had a great time during my stay on Rarotonga; the next bunch of castaways no doubt will be at one of the Cooks’ other 80 islands but I especially look forward to this upcoming edition for that reason, and let’s hope also for fewer strategic miscues next time. Strategic play always is available, but whether you make the most of your opportunities usually is the difference between a high finish and being an afterthought in the series.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor articles:

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

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Be sure to sign up for our e-mail update so you can stay informed about new articles on the site! And take a look at the rest of the site. You can find all of our recaps and other info on this show at the Survivor: Exile Island page, and take a look at our The Amazing Race 8 page and our Apprentice: Martha Stewart page. You can even buy reality show stuff at our Reality TV Store!

For more news about Survivor, be sure to check out SirLinksALot: Survivor and Survivor Fever!