RNO Roundtable – ‘Survivor: Cook Islands’ Predictions

Jenny Guzon-Bae

Brian: Jenny comes across as a well-rounded tomboy. A real estate agent, Jenny spends her time convincing people to make decisions Jenny wants them to – perfect training for this game. I saw her application video and it was well-organized and well-rounded. I can see her in the final four.

Jeffrey S.: Here’s an example of a profile that doesn’t give any reason to believe she’ll be anything special; indeed, she seems to be one of the celebrity chasers. Gone early.

Jenn: Jenny will be another player who’s underestimated. She’s athletic and driven, but they’ll probably all see her as just another pretty face. However, she strikes me as someone who will make a lot of friends and be well-liked by her fellow Survivors, which will help her stick around. I see her making the jury.

Jeffrey C.: Jenny has some of the right skills for the game, though I'm getting worried about her ability to survive in her initial tribe. If she can ride out the game until a merge or shuffle, she might do well, otherwise she might be a painful cut early on the in the game. She won't make the jury.

David: As a journalist, she had to choose her words carefully. As a real estate agent, she has to sell to people. Both are excellent backgrounds for Survivor. Can she turn them into a way to stick around for a while? I think so.

Jessica Smith

Brian: Oh. My. Gawd… “performance artist/roller girl?” I’m getting this most distressing “Courtney” vibe!” She doesn’t list Survivor in her list of favorite TV shows, either. Was she also recruited? I think the evil “Flicka Flame” will come across as too abrasive and her torch will flicker out early.

Jeffrey S.: Jessica is a free spirit and they never go too far unless your name is Courtney and you are carried until you are no longer useful. She’ll probably be remembered by people more for their scouring the Internet for potential nude pictures of her at Burning Man than for any superior strategic moves she makes, so she won’t be making the jury.

Jenn: Jessica is Courtney 2.0. I’m hoping the other Survivors realize that early on and don’t let her stick around as long as Courtney did. With my luck, she’ll be around for the jury, but I’ll try to head off disaster by saying that she won’t make it that far.

Jeffrey C.: Like those before me, I get the whole Courtney thing again from this Survivor. Given the makeup of her original tribe, I wonder if they'll worry that they have another “loopy broad” on their hands and get rid of her before she starts to annoy everybody before she makes it to the jury phase.

David: Jessica can’t possibly be as annoying as Courtney, right? But even so, I just don’t see her lasting very long – unless there is a series of roller derby challenges.

Jonathan Penner

Brian: Jonathan is one of the older players, but should get by the first couple of weeks as his team only has two males. I like his list of favorite actors, films, and music, but I don’t see anything that stands out enough for me to seriously consider picking him for jury duty.

Jeffrey S.: It was said the show had to scour for contestants this time, resulting in an inordinate proportion of Hollywood-connected types getting on this edition. He of all probably is the most plugged in to the film industry, appearing on both sides of the camera. To be charitable, people in the entertainment industry typically are pretty dim bulbs (as any number of statements they make on topical issues daily remind us) so he would have to go against type to make the jury with the intellectual and game skills almost always needed to get that far.

Jenn: Jonathan guest-starred on Arrested Development. He should win just based on that. But since I have no influence over who wins the game, I’ll just put him in the final four. He’s a smarty (he went to Sarah Lawrence) and has a lot of talents, so who knows what he’ll be able to do?

Jeffrey C.: While I generally prefer older contestants, Jonathan's initial problem is that his tribe is more heavily skewed to youth than in most of the groupings. While I think he probably has some leadership abilities and could get them organized, it might all blow up and cause him to get eliminated before he can prove he was right all along. He won't make the jury.

David: Can Jonathan use his acting abilities to mold himself into the kind of person that his tribe will like? Maybe. But it’s hard to act 24/7. Instead, I suspect he’ll be a fairly early boot.

J.P. Calderon

Brian: One thing about J.P. – he’s fit. His experiences in beach volleyball should prepare him for the heat and, to a degree, the dehydration. Plus, he has swimming skills. Although he lists the ever-problematic beef jerky as a favorite snack food, I have a good feeling about J.P. and see him getting deep into the game.

Jeffrey S.: Fitness will not be a problem for him, but if there’s one occupation that can rival entertainment figures for likely lack of smarts to get far in Survivor, it’s athletes. Again, maybe he’ll be against type, but odds favor he won’t make the jury as a result.

Jenn: As David said in his preview article, J.P.’s work with children will probably come in handy. I’m sure he’s patient and able to help solve conflicts easily. This could take him far, but I don’t think as far as the jury. I don’t think he’ll be able to measure up to some of the other players, especially the more athletic men.

Jeffrey C.: J.P. is one of my harder cuts to make, and I see his and Ozzy’s fate riding on the same item – a spear gun. If the tribe doesn't win one, J.P can outlast him; otherwise, I think Ozzy is going to triumph over him. My best guess is that Ozzy is going to stay, which means I think J.P won't make it to the jury phase.

David: Being a good swimmer is always a plus in Survivor (well, except the Africa season, but we’ll put that aside). If his tribemates realize how valuable he could be in challenges because of this, they will want to keep him around a while. How long? Maybe to the jury, maybe not.