Survivor: Fiji – Why Earl Won

Earl wanted to be on The Amazing Race, but instead ended up being an amazing Survivor player. He subtly controlled the game for much of the season, bringing people together and putting himself in the right position. Indeed, he received only one vote against him the whole time, and that was a throwaway from Rita in the third episode – so long ago and meaningless that even Jeff Probst forgot about it! How did Earl do it? Why did Earl win?

All season long, we use What Fiji Survivors Should Have Learned to look at why contestants lose. But once each season, we get to use them to explain why somebody won! This is that time, so let’s get to it.

Although Earl admitted he had not watched much Survivor, he is a smart guy. As he told me in my interview with him, he understood that the most important aspect of the game is dealing with people. I call it scheming and plotting, but it’s pretty much the same thing. Winning Survivor is much more about dealing with people than it is about dealing with the elements.

And Earl didn’t wait! In the very first day on Fiji, he had an alliance with Cassandra and Dreamz that would end up taking him all the way to the end. He quickly aligned with Yau-Man as well, with similar results. In other words, he followed the part of this rule that says, “From the very beginning, you have to start making alliances and cementing relationships. … Later in the game you can rework alliances according to what is necessary to stick around, but early on you should make use of whatever relationships present themselves.”

Another portion of this rule notes, “The most important attribute of an alliance is that the people in it won’t vote for you to leave.” This obviously worked well for Earl, as he only received one throwaway vote from Rita back in Episode 3. In all the times that various members of his alliance considered cannibalizing it, nobody ever seriously brought up Earl’s name. Dreamz and Cassandra considered going after Yau-Man several times. Yau-Man considered dumping Dreamz. Boo and Stacy were both obvious targets. But nobody really said, “Hey, let’s go after Earl!”

Earl accomplished this in part by playing a variation on the theme set by Brian Heidik. Brian had both a main alliance and a variety of sub-alliances that the others didn’t know about. Earl had a solid alliance with Yau-Man, which was Yau-Man’s only alliance. But as Earl told me, he “had about six alliances, including Michelle and Anthony.” So Earl was more prepared for different situations.

Earl managed to put himself in a position where he could fairly well control the vote (though not always getting exactly who he wanted voted off – as when the alliance split their vote between Alex and Mookie, with Alex’s vote causing Mookie to leave). He didn’t have to stab people in the back, because he got others to do the dirty work for him.

That takes us directly into the second rule, which says not to scheme and plot too much, backstab too early, or make your planning too public. Earl was something of a man behind the curtain, or as he described it to me, “an under the radar leader.” The “under the radar” part is key, because a corollary to the rule says, “if any alliances do get out in the open, do not let it be known that you are the decision-maker.”

When the Four Horsemen were planning their initial post-merge attack, they were targeting Cassandra. They thought she was the glue holding the alliance together, and maybe they were right. But we didn’t see them even consider going after Earl, who was the true leader of the group.

The only person Earl truly stabbed in the back was Yau-Man, and he didn’t do it too early – he did it exactly when it needed to be done. He was in a position where he could legitimately say he didn’t have a choice. So overall, he did well by this rule.

Third is to be flexible. It might seem at first that Earl violated this rule because it says, in big bold type, not to simply tie yourself to one alliance and hope it survives. After all, didn’t I say earlier that Earl aligned himself with Cassandra and Dreamz on day one?

Yes, but… Earl didn’t just hope the alliance survived – he made it survive. And as already noted, he wasn’t just involved in a single alliance, but in multiple alliances that could be used for contingency purposes. A good example of this was his alliance with Michelle. I was worried when she was voted out, but Earl quickly picked up some new pieces and kept playing his game. He was willing to consider bringing in new players and reworking things, as long as the overall game plan stayed pointed in the right direction.

The fourth rule tells players not to let their emotions control them. Earl certainly made friends on Fiji, as he told us numerous times. But he also showed that he wouldn’t let those friendships interfere unduly with the game.