RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: China’ Predictions

Each season, the RealityNewsOnline writers put together their collective heads and try to figure out which Survivor contestants will do well and which won’t. Some of them have had pretty good success. Two seasons ago, four out of five participating writers predicted that Yul would win. And then there was last season, when none of us got it right (though most had Earl making it pretty far, at least). This season, we have a huge group of writers making predictions, so somebody is bound to get it right, right? Let’s see what David Bloomberg, Jenn Brasler, Jeffrey Clinard, Ken Kellam III, Heathyr Fields-Ford, Wesley Rice, Jeffrey Sadow, Sting7, and Brian Towers have to say.

Aaron

Jenn: Other than his athleticism, it looks like Aaron is counting on his experiences with bars and restaurants to get him through the game. For his sake, let’s hope no one else proves to be better at catching fish, or Aaron’s usefulness won’t count for much. Aaron seems like every other vaguely attractive waiter/bartender/aspiring model/actor who’s ever appeared on a reality TV show, and until I see something that sets him apart, I’m going to remain under the impression that he’s nothing special. I’ll put him through to the jury just for the heck of it.

Ken:His plan to use his cooking skills to advance in the game is a risky one. It’s highly unlikely he’ll have the tools to work with he’s used to back in the states; just ask Keith from the Outback. Plus, Aaron describes himself as “too nice.” Translation: More predatory (i.e. strategic) players may blindside him early on, or use him as a pawn and then chew him up and spit him out when he no longer serves their purposes. Jury duty at best.

Jeffrey S.:His background doesn’t scream out his having an ambitious streak to him, although his choices of board games and reading Ayn Rand shows he must at least have some interest in thinking about complex subjects. Maybe it’ll serve him well strategically, so I’ll say he makes the jury.

Heathyr:While he is a bit of nice eye candy on the screen, he also obviously believes he’s major eye candy, so that is a personality turn off. If he comes off like that to the group, they might get sick of him. Plus his use of “lovely ladies” when discussing the women who come into the bar makes me throw up a little in my mouth. When queried as to what he’d be on the game, he said “leader or follower” which, er, duh?! Have to be one or the other. I’m guessing by strength alone, he’ll stick around for awhile as they’ll want him on the team, but once we merge, goodbye. So, to the jury, but not to win.

Sting7: It seems everyone describes Aaron as an “alpha male.” The alpha males always seem to do well in this game. They are big on the “us vs. them” mentality which translates to “good tribemate.” For some reason. Count on him to make jury.

Jeffrey C.: This guy seems like he can be everybody’s friend and alliance partner. This works for him as he’ll be around to get to the final stages of the game, but he’ll be sent to jury duty before the finals.

Wesley: Since there's so very little off which to base a contestant's chances simply from reading a short online bio of the player, I have in the past resorted to ranking the contestants based on such things as video game preferences or breakfast cereals. So let's take a look at Aaron's favorite cereals. Let's see, he likes Fruity Pebbles and Corn Pops, so clearly he-- wait. He also likes Shredded Wheat and Grape Nuts! Agh! The eclecticism! I can't get a read on this guy. I suppose I'll just have to base it on favorite candy bars this year. And boy is he a candy bar enthusiast. A lover of Baby Ruths, Almond Joys, Zagnut, and 3 Musketeers. Clearly he can't make up his mind very well, but I'll give him kudos for the Zagnut. Jury Member.

Brian: Aaron is a bartender who likes to surf, and he sees himself as “one of the hunks.” He suspects he will be a leader in the game, and be reluctant to give up control. Uh-oh, there’s nothing in his background to suggest he can successfully lead those with separate agendas for 39 days without tripping. Another warning bell goes off when he expresses some of his plans about the game. He seems to overvalue the physical aspects, and doesn’t see alliances as important right from the start. Now, Aaron may be a good swimmer and his biography indicates a wide variety of interests, but I think Aaron will be identified as a schemer. That darn warning bell rang once too often, and I’m not sure if I can put him on my imaginary jury.

David: First off, Aaron thinks his cooking skills will keep him around? Dumb. But his physical abilities might keep him around at least until the merge. I just don’t have a real good feeling for Aaron’s future, but can’t put my finger on why…

Amanda

Jenn: I was wary when I first read that Amanda is a former pageant queen, but the fact that she lists her occupation as “hiking guide” makes me optimistic. She’s not your typical high-maintenance princess – she’s been camping since she was three years old, so she’s not going to have any trouble roughing it. If she can stay on top of her game and compete well (but not TOO well) in challenges, she’ll make it through to the jury.

Ken:A former beauty pageant winner, Amanda definitely has her outdoors side, having worked as a hiking tour guide. Clearly, she’s comfortable in either five-inch heels or hiking boots, although you do have to wonder about someone who would wear those heels to fly kites off the Great Wall of China. Maybe she did it just because she could, and maybe she’s doing Survivor for the same reason. She also tries never to leave home without her cowboy boots, but I have yet to see a challenge involving boot-scooting or two-stepping, so hopefully she left those at home. Amanda is a true wild card. I can see her making the final four, but I can also see her as an early exit. Most likely, she’ll stick around just long enough to make the jury, especially if she can form a young players’ alliance early on, a la the Samburu Brat Pack.

Jeffrey S.: Beware the beauty pageant contestants because they have good catfighting skills, can get some guys to lose their minds, and this one actually bothers to watch Survivor, too. Given her interests, she doesn’t seem as dizzy as most models (although that didn’t seem to hurt one Survivor winner) but neither does she seem all that clever, so she’s jury material.

Heathyr: With her pageant experience, she’ll probably be able to play a good social game, and with her outdoor experience, she won’t come off like just another spoiled model. I would surmise she’ll make it to the jury, unless she becomes a complete wuss unexpectedly.

Sting7: The former Miss Montana is a hiking guide, which means her “ick factor” should be lower than most pageant queens. Amanda seems like someone who is willing to do what must be done, and looks like she may be the heralded “athletic female.” Jury for certain.

Jeffrey C.: I get lousy vibes from her. I think she’ll last only a few episodes until she’s booted, as the word “worthless” comes to mind when examining her strong points. Off way before jury duty.

Wesley: Ho-hum with the Twix there, but she makes the right choice with Caramello. Oh those sweet milk chocolaty squares, filled with rich, gooey caramel. That's it. I'm handing Amanda a final three spot for her choice of Caramello. This hiking guide is going to easily charm her fellow Survivors.

Brian: Cute Amanda is a very likeable young lady who seems mature beyond her 22 years. Her sports and hiking background indicate she has the necessary level of what I’ll call “outdoorsy fitness.” In fact, Probst calls her ,“probably the most physically fit women this season.” An admitted fan of the show (which undoubtedly explains the maturity factor), she shows us she knows the importance of building an early alliance, developing teamwork, and that the game is “a mental, physical, and emotional competition.” I like the total package!

David: Immediate bonus points to Amanda for being a fan of the show. More points for saying she plans to really play the game, not just try to get by on her looks. I will be pleasantly surprised if she shows the brains I hope she has. But I fear she may be typecast early and have to dig her way out of a hole.

Ashley

Jenn: Ashley seems… annoying, honestly. I guess being a wrestler is supposed to make her unique, but I’m not sure how it’s supposed to help her in the game. I think she’s trying too hard. I probably won’t be sad to see her go, and I’m guessing it won’t be before long.

Ken: Success may be harder to come by when it’s unscripted. Ashley might be better off not telling the others about her wrestling background, lest she become a target due to her strength… Think of her as Jenna Morasca with muscles, but don’t expect to see her hand raised in victory when it’s all over. In fact, I see her becoming a lightning rod for controversy and getting booted early as a result.

Jeffrey S.: Given her background, she strikes me as the kind of person who wants to be seen above all else and not that much into the game. So she’ll be seen all right, but not for long – out before the jury.

Heathyr: Quite an interesting sort of person. I have a feeling, however, that she won’t win the others over and will be too overbearing. While she can take a physical beating, there is more to Survivor than that, and I have my doubts on her abilities on the social and endurance aspects that don’t involve “working through the pain.” I do agree with her assessment that no one should be on the show unless they think they can win.

Sting7: The WWE’s own Ashley is definitely an athletic female. Why is this important? Because when the going gets tough, the women take the brunt. Then the elderly. But if you are a butt-kicking female, the alpha boys will keep you around. Ashley will fall just short of the jury though, as that WWE dough makes her less needy than others.

Jeffrey C.:Ashley: Tough women are hard to come by on Survivor, and it makes them valuable, as many challenges are sex-segregated. As such, she’ll be very valuable to her tribe and isn’t likely to be cut before the merge. After that, she needs a strong alliance or her strength becomes a negative, and she’ll be sent to the jury.

Wesley: Snickers aren't bad, but they aren't great either. They're kind of like the Ford Taurus of candy bars. Half the people seem to drive 'em, but that still doesn't make them any good. I think this wrestling diva and her Snickers will be out before the jury.

Brian: I do not follow wrestling so I’m not familiar with WWE diva Ashley’s persona. Despite the fact that she applied to get on the show, I sense a “try anything once” aspect to Ashley and I wonder if she’s suited to this game. In the WWE, offenses are responded to aggressively; in Survivor, one needs to respond more strategically. Can Ashley do that? Perhaps not, and I predict a short stay for her in China.

David: As my cohorts have noted, Ashley has a variety of pluses and minuses that could help or hurt her in the game. She is a strong woman, which could make people want to keep her around until the merge. But she likely has a strong personality, which could have quite the opposite effect. I’m going to side with the physical aspect and say she’ll be around for a while.