Survivor: China – Advice for the Remaining 12

So far, this edition of Survivor seems to have little of the traditional alliance making. Outside of Amanda, Todd, and Aaron, the rest of the Survivors seem to be making a large group decision instead of one directed by a single alliance. The only close vote was the first one; the rest have been totally lopsided ones against a specific tribe member.

What we’ve seen are Tribal Councils where tribes have gotten rid of their misfits. Chicken refused to try to work together with the rest of the group, Ashley clashed with her tribe, and Dave received the ultimate vote of no confidence in his leadership. Over at Fei Long, Leslie appeared to be fitting in better with their enemies than with her own tribe. Out she went. The lesson so far seems to be not to be a misfit. There are not a lot of strong personalities left, and if the voting continues the way it has been, I won’t be surprised to see the editing trying to manufacture some conflict.

Still, the opportunity to put together a voting alliance and start directing the vote exists, and a smart Survivor should take advantage of the opportunity before somebody else does. Eventually the only way to stay in the game is to be on the right side of the vote, and that means being in a majority alliance. How soon the Survivors figure that out may determine just how long they end up staying in the game.

After four episodes there is still plenty of opportunity for each Survivor to make the right moves to put him- or herself into a position to eventually win the game. What should each person be doing to advance him- or herself? It’s advice for the remaining 12.

Fei Long: You’ve recovered nicely from last week’s losses, winning both the reward and immunity challenges. However, you unwittingly did Zhan Hu a favor by kidnapping Dave. It showed them they didn’t need his leadership at camp, and thus the courage to vote him out of the tribe.

Jean-Robert: While you survived the last vote, you are still on thin ice. While you have stepped up your work at camp life and did well in the challenges, you are still overestimating your value. Your biggest mistake is assuming people may vote out Courtney next. Not all Survivors lose because they have the weakest bodies. Be very careful in talking to (or yelling at) her; the other Survivors may decide you’re too disruptive at camp life and vote you out next.

Amanda: We haven’t seen much of you lately, but you seem to be in a good position; tight with Aaron and Todd, and letting others (Courtney and Jean-Robert) be the resident misfits on your tribe. Your biggest decision is going to be which one of them to get rid of if you return to Tribal Council. I’d suggest losing Jean-Robert, as Courtney has some ties to Todd and makes a useful vote. That way, even if you lose the next two immunity challenges, you can get rid of James before the merge and get rid of a threat.

Courtney: Right now, your game plan has to revolve around getting rid of Jean-Robert, as he’s the one targeting you right now, and it may come down to a him-or-you situation. Your best defense is to promise loyalty to your allies, particularly Todd. A secure voting alliance is almost as good as immunity, and Jean-Robert doesn’t seem to have many friends. Go on the quiet attack, urging the decision makers to get rid of Jean-Robert as an unreliable vote in the future.

Denise: You made a good choice by learning how to use the fishing net; it makes you more valuable to the tribe and gave you some time with Aaron. You need to make things a bit more formal by joining up with him, Amanda, and Todd as your four votes can control the vote. I’d take a subtle approach; work with whoever you most feel comfortable with and talk about which way the vote should go.

James: Your single biggest problem is that you don’t have secure allies, with Jean-Robert perhaps the only one you have. This presents a problem as your biggest strength is in the challenges, and that is going to shift to a negative when the merge happens. Your best bet is to work with Jean-Robert and push the argument that Courtney is holding your tribe back in challenges. If you can convince Aaron and Amanda of that, you’ll be in a better position to be a useful vote post-merge.

Todd: You’re doing very well, as you are allied with Amanda and Aaron, and you have the only set of clues to the immunity idol. You played Dave well, trying to be nice as you knew what he had that was valuable to you. Your biggest worry is going to be to convince your alliance to send Jean-Robert home instead of Courtney. The best argument to keep Courtney is that she’s a secure vote, while Jean-Robert is not.

Aaron: You’re doing well so far, as you’ve quietly led your tribe to more victories than losses, and also are allied with Todd and Amanda. In addition, you also learned how to use the net, making you even more valuable to the tribe. If you’ve added Denise to your alliance, your next big decision is whether to eliminate Jean-Robert or Courtney if you return to Tribal Council. I suggest releasing Jean-Robert as his vote seems less reliable.