Survivor: China – Who Will Go in Episode 9?

"Do not swallow bait offered by an enemy." - Sun Tzu The Art of War translated by Lionel Giles.

I chuckled to myself this morning when I found this week's strategic advice from Sun Tzu, as it is appropriate not only to this week's boot, but to myself for swallowing whole a huge, smelly chunk of bait set out by the producers last week. I took in CBS's misdirections like a big mouthed bass.

It seemed so plausible that James could actually be going home last week that I talked myself into thinking that it would happen. Last Thursday as the recap of the previous week was showing during the startup of the show, I realized right then that Jean-Robert was toast. He was the highlight of the recap. Oh well. Lesson learned, right?

So who will go this week? Once again, let's take a look at the clues from the CBS website to see if the editors are leading us to take any more of their bait.

Clue 1: A new force to be reckoned with takes on the power players.

I would expect that James comes back from Tribal Council a little shaken after receiving votes. Granted, these votes were clearly from the former Zhan Hu, but it was enough to probably get him thinking about how close it could've been to him being the one sent home.

The other possibility in this could be that Denise is tired of being the one left out of her alliance. Last week, we saw her not only left out of the reward challenge, but she was also left out of the discussions on who was being sent home. Her lone vote for Peih-Gee could leave her with a bad taste in her mouth. Could she see this as an opportunity to flip?

Clue 2: When one girl starts caressing someone outside her alliance, her allies are not happy.

This is a huge clue that comes with plenty of supporting video. We've noticed in the past few episodes that Courtney and Frosti have become very close and this week we see her consoling him very tenderly, possibly after the immunity challenge. She could easily be perceived as a liability to her alliance if she is swayed into anything that Frosti might want her to do.

Along the same lines, Frosti could easily be taken in by Courtney. This is how we would likely get the title to this week's episode, "Just Don't Eat the Apple." Couldn't you just hear that phrase coming out of either Todd or more likely our recent funny man, James's, mouth? One of them would be telling Frosti (or the camera during a confessional) that he's getting tempted by Courtney and not to get swept into it.

Clue 3: One vulnerable castaway may change his fate by…acting like a sheep?

Who knows what this could be about, but considering that James and Todd are probably safe for now, this could be something about Erik or Frosti. On this particular clue, I have a feeling that Erik will get pulled into the majority vote somehow just to save himself for the week. Otherwise, he's been sort of a quiet sheep all the way through the show. We sure haven't seen much of him.

Is Erik even still on the show?

So the clues aren't giving us much to work with this week, other than the tidbits about the Courtney-Frosti dyad pulling together more tightly. But I do think that these two will be the focus of the week and one of them will go home.

Let's pause for a moment, though. Some of you may be wondering why I haven't yet mentioned Peih-Gee and the possibility of her going home this week. After all, she is potentially the most obvious target and we've all heard say that Amanda wants the head of the former Fei Long gone. But there's one subtle clue given to us in previews that tells us that she will not be going home this week.

In the previews from last week, we're shown the reaction from several contestants as Jeff tells them that they won't be going home right after Tribal Council; there is more business to attend to. There are reaction close ups of Courtney, James, Peih-Gee, Todd and Amanda.

In these shots, you can also see the shoulders, arms or clothing from James and Erik, which determines who is still sitting in the group and where. The only people not shown are Denise and Frosti. We can assume there is some leeway given in the editing, but having those two specifically not shown could be a large clue.

The subtle clue is in the more tightly, cut shot of Peih-Gee. If you look closely, you can see in the very bottom left corner a tiny piece of the Immunity Necklace she is wearing. You may think I'm nuts, but look at it; then compare it to a picture of Courtney or Frosti wearing the necklace in past weeks and you'll see. This is why I believe she'll be safe this week.

So this leaves us with either Denise or Frosti heading to Loser's Lodge this week, I believe. Denise has been only a small character this season; just along for the experience rather than the win. We did see a few more confessionals with her last week and I think they were there to make us feel for her, similar to Rupert's character in Pearl Islands. They're both underdogs and through life they've been outside of the "in-crowds".

Even though she was left out of last week's vote with her alliance, I don't think that they'll see a strategic need in cutting her from the group right now. They still have to finish off the Pagonging of the former Fei Long tribe. With Peih-Gee untouchable this week and Erik a non-threat, that leaves Frosti.

Frosti's eviction this week is an easy decision. He is a potential challenge threat, similar to Ozzy a few seasons ago. His compact stature combined with his strength and athleticism may make it difficult to beat him in any challenge requiring strength or agility. His friendship with Courtney is growing closer, which bothers the reigning alliance.

He has wormed his way into the fringes of the former Zhan Hu alliance, but they could see him as someone who could pull Courtney's easy vote away from them and shift two votes over to the lesser alliance. This, in itself, should be considered the biggest reason to get rid of him now.

With the title quote talking about not eating the apple (being tempted by a wily woman) and the quote at the beginning of this article from Sun Tzu, it seems to me that there is nobody else who could even be in the crosshairs this week. Frosti's time in China will end.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: China articles here on RealityNewsOnline:

Kari is a retired Air Force Hurricane Hunter who thrives for big adventure. Please send any comments, questions, and thoughts about the bootees to Kari at flystorms2@yahoo.com.

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