Survivor: Micronesia – Why Tracy Lost

Even with four people leaving in the span of two episodes, Tracy was the only one to actually go out because of strategy and game play rather than injury or quitting. Of course, for everybody who leaves through any means other than a medical evacuation, we analyze their play (as we did for Chet and Kathy); it’s just that for Tracy, we are back to the way things should be. So let’s look at the big question – why did Tracy lose?

As always, we will examine that overarching question in terms of What Micronesia Survivors Should Have Learned. Let’s see what happened to Tracy.

Tracy showed that she understood the importance of the first rule, scheming and plotting. Even though she was shunted aside with Chet and Kathy right from the get-go, she refused to give up. When they were down and seemed fine with just being voted out, Tracy picked them up, dusted them off (as much as she could), and marched them out to start trying to change their situation.

And it’s not like Tracy even had an opportunity to really choose her allies. When I interviewed her, she told me, “We never had a tribe of ten, ever. The youngin’s were like, ‘You’re over here, the three oldest.’ … People ask me all the time, ‘Why did you bond with Chet?’ Did I have a choice? They wouldn’t let me in.” But Tracy made the most of what she had, helping to turn the vote against first Mary, then Mike, then Joel – all the while helping her alliance avoid getting hit. And frankly, if Chet hadn’t been injured and/or had been willing to help Tracy to repay the way she’d helped him, then Ozzy would have been voted out next and Tracy might well still be there!

But while Tracy was able to use her three-person bloc to take sides in the power struggles of the original Fan tribe, she was unable to break through once the tribes were switched up. Amanda was too loyal to Ozzy. And, as Tracy said, “I couldn’t flip Cirie, she just wouldn’t budge.” She did manage to make a potential ally in Ami, but they needed just that one more vote (which Chet wouldn’t give a couple episodes ago) or to redirect some of the votes in a bit of sleight of hand. Neither worked out.

So we can grant that Tracy did fairly well in the first rule – what about the second? I think we can safely say that she didn’t scheme and plot too much. What about backstabbing too soon? After all, she took out Joel, leaving the Fans at a numeric disadvantage.

I would say no. Joel was locked in with Chet as his target. So either way, a Fan was leaving the game. There was nothing more she could do.

The only negative I can point to in this rule is that her alliances were obvious – well, most of them. Everybody knew she was attached to Chet; everybody knew she was a Fan instead of a Favorite. But there really wasn’t anything she could do about that. But the others didn’t know about her alliance with Ami – alas, it never amounted to anything.

Tracy also followed the third rule pretty well. It emphasizes flexibility, and Tracy definitely adhered to that idea. As Chet told me when I interviewed him, “Our strategy was to stay a threesome, three votes always going the same way. … [W]e didn’t care who we voted for as long as it wasn’t one of us, so if somebody was organizing a coup, they would come to us.” That is definitely flexibility. While Tracy certainly had ideas on who she would have liked to get rid of (she noted that she really wanted to get rid of Mikey instead of Mary in the first vote), she recognized the need to go with the flow.

The fourth rule says players cannot allow themselves to be controlled by their emotions. From what we saw, Tracy didn’t suffer from this problem. However, it appears tribemate Amanda’s emotions did play a role in Tracy’s ouster. While she didn’t know that if she voted against Erik, she would actually be ensuring showmance Ozzy’s departure, she also didn’t want to vote out Ozzy’s little buddy without him knowing. From what we saw, she felt she needed to tell him. While we didn’t see it, I’m sure that didn’t go well, meaning she wouldn’t vote for Erik and the whole plan fell apart. It wasn’t strategy – it was, as she said, that she just didn’t want to upset Ozzy.

Getting back to Tracy, how did she do in terms of the fifth rule, which says to pretend to be nice? From what we saw, she did fine. She was not voted off because she rubbed people the wrong way, so this rule didn’t really play a role.

Sixth is to not be too much of a threat. I do think Ozzy saw Tracy as a bit of a strategic threat, though I doubt he had any idea how close he came to being voted out twice. But more importantly, she was a threat to both Ozzy’s main alliance (with fellow Favorites) and secondary alliance (with Erik). In his eyes, there was certainly nobody else who could go.

The seventh rule, which says not to be lazy, was not an issue here. So we’ll move to the eighth, which discusses whether the rest of the tribe made the right decision. I think Cirie is wrong to continue to count on her alliance with Ozzy and Amanda (and James and Parvati, once they merge), and should have seriously considered jumping ship. The same is true of Erik, who seems to be relying on his growing bond with Ozzy to keep him safe. And if they had turned on Ozzy, certainly Ami would have as well – she was just looking for the opportunity to do so.

Tracy found herself in a terrible position, but she made the best of it for a while. She was an outcast on her original tribe but turned her threesome into a power trio (well, when it came to voting, anyway). Then on her new tribe she helped turn the vote around again. Once. After that, though, she was out of luck. Her closest ally wouldn’t go along with her plan. Then she couldn’t overcome the pull that Ozzy has over several other players, especially Amanda.

Tracy did a pretty decent job of playing the game, but her situation was not a good one. She needed everything to fall into place just right, but that didn’t happen. She couldn’t quite break her way into the Favorites, at least not with King Ozzy running things. So she was really the only choice to go. That is why Tracy lost.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Micronesia articles here on RealityNewsOnline:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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