Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 10: One, Two, Three Times a Mistake, Ladies

This episode of Survivor, what we got here was three lessons on how not to play the game on a strategic level. From them, one player escaped damaged, another couple demonstrably reduced their chances of winning, and a third, obviously, no longer can win.

Jason made mistake number one in ever taking a deal to swap goodwill for potential immunity. It’s a simple matter of game theory: 1) he was the preferred candidate to go; 2) he would not go only if all others would agree not to send him packing – meaning one of those agreeing in essence was swapping places with him – so 3) the person who felt most vulnerable (maybe more than one) would never agree to such a deal unless, 4) a majority, likely all, would renege on the deal. So he should have been suspicious immediately, and added to that he already was so close to winning (if he was at the end of his rope, maybe a case could have been built in favor of the deal). This was a sucker’s deal pure and simple – especially knowing another preferred target had a hidden immunity idol.

Only with that player making a mistake could Jason survive this folly. Ozzy obliged. From the perspective of someone who knew he could be a target and who also had the means to negate that possibility, especially since he believed the deal was insincere from the start, he should have reasoned out that a group insincere in one matter was just as likely to be insincere on the matter of not voting him out. Ironically, James may have been correct when he opined upon the casting of his vote that he had thought he had passed along the mantle of being the stupidest player ever – meaning to Jason, but instead handing that honor over to Ozzy.

The third mistake was neither fatal nor benign, with time telling how it will turn out. Parvati created the crisis too early when she and Cirie jumped. After dealing with Jason, she was going to have to choose alliances. She probably would have been better off marginally with the original than bringing Alexis and Natalie into some combination, but she wouldn’t have been that much worse off. But leaving Jason out there, one more random element that she would have to control, especially since he has proven he can win challenges, just was not smart.

Worse, Parvati left a situation strongly favoring getting her in front of the jury. She was guaranteed with her old two-dyads-plus-Cirie alliance of getting to six, and even if the odd person out won immunity at six, she still was incredibly likely of going to five. If the intended five made it there, Ozzy likely would have been next unless he or Amanda won immunity, which probably would then have cost James, and then Parvati might have been stopped at four, but if neither Ozzy nor Amanda won at five, one of them would have gone, and unless the one who survived won the next immunity, Parvati was in.

Now her chances are somewhat diminished, not just in getting to the jury phase in contention, but also in winning the vote. Both she and Cirie have made a choice they cannot repudiate. Amanda and James will not accept them back, forgive all, and trust them again, and they cannot create a majority with Erik alone. Even if they did go back, in essence plugging the politically- (Yap is not its own state, it’s one of the constituent states of the Federated States of Micronesia), historically- (humans did not roam the Earth with dinosaurs a million years ago), and nut-absorbing-challenged Erik into Ozzy’s spot, with proven disloyalty they would become the likely targets at five and four.

Yes, two challenge threats of Ozzy and James were neutralized for that final push to get in front of the jury, but Jason’s not a bad hand at competing at physical challenges, Alexis seems to have smarts enough to win mental challenges, and Natalie looks like if there’s a challenge involving floating, she’s got the pair of life preservers to stay above water forever. Worse, those three may combine forces at five to get themselves in front of the jury. From where she was, it’s hard to argue that Parvati is any better off under this new arrangement, and in any event has forsaken at least one jury vote.