Survivor: Micronesia – Why Alexis Lost

Alexis thought she was in a solid alliance that would take her to the final four or beyond. She certainly figured she was safe as she walked into Tribal Council – right up until the time when Amanda stopped her acting job and held up the hidden immunity idol. How did Alexis end up in this position and why was she the one chosen to go home? Why did Alexis lose?

Two weeks ago, Ozzy didn’t know he needed to play the hidden immunity idol; last week, Jason should have known he needed to play the hidden immunity idol; this week, Amanda did know she needed to play the hidden immunity idol – and she did it! (And earned herself a Reality TV Hall of Fame Moment in the process!) That led directly to Alexis being sent to the jury with only two votes. But we can still analyze her loss in the same way as usual – by going through What Micronesia Survivors Should Have Learned point by point.

I believe Alexis understood that the first and most important rule is to scheme and plot. From the beginning, Alexis showed that she understood how to stay on the winning side of a vote, even apparently jumping from an alliance with Eliza, Jonathan, and Jason to one with Parvati after Jonathan left and the numbers no longer worked out the way she wanted them to.

Once the tribes merged, Alexis and Natalie worked to ensure they were in the majority alliance with Parvati and whichever other person seemed the most viable at the time (whether that was Amanda or Cirie). And from her perspective, all seemed to be going well. The women were voting out the men, and Parvati seemed like she would stay true.

Alexis noticed the red flags thrown up when Parvati asked if they should vote out Alexis due to her knee injury. But she didn’t appear to notice similar red flags when Parvati said she could not be a part of any plan to get rid of Amanda. Alexis needed to realize at that point that Parvati might try something.

However, it didn’t really seem like there was anything to try. Everybody but Parvati (and obviously Amanda) agreed to vote out Amanda. And Amanda showed that she didn’t have the hidden immunity idol. So that was that. The only thing Alexis reasonably had to fear was if both Cirie and Natalie or Erik changed side, and that didn’t seem very likely.

It might seem at first glance that Alexis also followed the second rule and didn’t scheme and plot too much. After all, she wasn’t making a bunch of side deals and wheeling and dealing – she had her alliance and stuck to it.

But that would ignore the part of this rule that advises contestants that they must keep their scheming secret. One specific example given from way back in Season 2 is:

Lex felt he needed to be honest to Clarence and then again (at least partially) to Kelly before voting them off. Sorry, but that was the wrong move. Lie to their faces, and then vote 'em off. There is no reason to alert them to their impending doom – it only gives them time to plot their own counterattack, which Kelly almost successfully did against Lex.

And really, it’s even worse than we saw on TV. As she told me when I interviewed her, Alexis was “feeling so bad. I said, ‘I won’t lie to you, I am voting for you.’ My fault.” Indeed, it was her fault (and Natalie’s and Erik’s and Cirie’s – though Cirie actually ends up in a pretty favorable position because of it). Players cannot let their guard down just because they feel bad about a decision. In addition to the example I cited earlier, the rule specifically says:

As much as some targets say they want to know ahead of time, and as much as players might feel like it’s a good idea to let the targets know in case they make it to the final three and have to face those previous targets at the jury, the fact of the matter is that it’s better to risk it and at least get to the final three rather than giving your target an opportunity to turn the tables.

The third rule tells players to be flexible. I do think Alexis succeeded here and understood how important this was, as she told me specifically that “malleability” was the way she intended to play the game, especially at the beginning. She knew she had to play around the strategies of other people and change tactics as the game moved on.

However, she didn’t do as well for the fourth rule. Looking back to her failure in the second rule, why did she tell Amanda she was voting her out? Because she allowed her emotions to get to her. As she told me, “I was feeling so bad. … I spent the whole day feeling terrible about it.” Because she liked and respected Amanda so much, she caved in to those emotions and let them overrule what her proper strategy should have been.

Compare this to Amanda, who used her emotions strategically to get the others to do what she wanted them to do. Alexis was controlled by her emotions, while Amanda was controlling with her emotions.

Alexis did do fine by the fifth rule, though, as she seemed like a nice enough person. Certainly, she wasn’t voted out because she was a jerk or anything. Indeed, it was probably quite the opposite, which leads us to the sixth rule.

That rule says not to be too much of a threat. While Natalie was the bigger threat from a physical point of view – given Alexis’ injury – Parvati apparently convinced Amanda that Alexis was a bigger threat in front of the jury. After all, Alexis is a motivational speaker! That’s about the last person you would want to face off against in front of the jury. So that certainly made her more of an overall threat, at least in their eyes.

Personally, I think I would have voted off Natalie. We’ve already seen how she could manipulate at least one person (Jason) and I wouldn’t want to take a chance on others. Plus, it would be easier to get rid of Alexis before the jury because she almost certainly wouldn’t have been able to win immunity with her injury.

The seventh rule was not an issue here, as food and laziness had nothing to do with Alexis’ situation. So that brings us to the eighth rule, which asks if each of the players did the right thing. Really, in this case, we’re only talking about Amanda and Parvati, as all the rest voted to get rid of Amanda. As I noted above, I think they should have targeted Natalie, but that is obviously the only even remotely negative thing I can say about what happened. It was an incredible moment and the two of them did a great job in planning it.

Alexis didn’t have a clue it was coming – nor did anybody else, for that matter. She and the others thought they were being nice by letting Amanda know she would be headed out of the game. But what they really did was let her know just how badly she needed to dig up the idol and use it right then and there. If they had been cagier or flat-out lied, they might have made Amanda feel safe enough to not use the idol – heck, it happened in each of the past two weeks!

While four people made that mistake, only two were really at risk. Out of those two, Amanda and Parvati determined that Alexis posed the bigger threat. Sometimes, it doesn’t take much to get voted out of Survivor. In this case, Alexis allowed her emotions to overcome strategy while at the same time being the favored target of the only two who mattered. That is why Alexis lost.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Micronesia articles here on RealityNewsOnline:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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