Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 13: One Good Mistake Deserves Another

Sometimes, writers for RNO will suggest titles for their articles. This effort being too good to pass up, at first I considered riffing off Eugene O’Neill’s play The Iceman Cometh into The Ice Cream Man Goeth, but, of course, when it comes to Survivor, Erik is a boy, not a man. I also considered the Van Halen cover off their eponymous first album of John Brim’s “Ice Cream Man,” but the same quality applies, nor does that describe Erik because the subject of that song had a way with the ladies.

I thought about “The Vanilla Marcellas,” too, but figured the reference to old-school Big Brother might not be well-known among Survivor fans (Marcellas was on the show back when he was one of the few narcissists on the show, as opposed to it being virtually required these days – and of course, he went directly from the show into the Reality TV Hall of Shame). So I’m settling for “One Good Mistake Deserves Another.”

I don’t really have to go into explaining the strategy deserving title, the bilking of Erik of out of his immunity idol, because the only one who wouldn’t understand the idiocy of his surrender would be Erik himself. Obviously, all the chicks were winners by this move, but two were bigger winners than others.

At this stage of the game, the players of Survivor must remember a couple of simple rules that determine the pecking order of jury votes. First and foremost, you lose votes before you gain them. That is, it is easier to alienate votes than it is to gain them. This is primarily Parvati’s and Natalie’s problem, and to a lesser extent Cirie’s. This is why Parvati’s and Natalie’s positions are difficult and the only chance they have to win is to face Cirie. Erik had been on that second tier with Cirie. The only way he had a chance of winning was to get in there with Parvati and Natalie and…

Which brings us to the other consideration: just because others lose votes does not mean you will gain them. These are independent phenomena and explain why Erik could lose even against a final three with Parvati and Natalie. They have alienated people but he had done nothing to earn votes that otherwise would not go to any of these three. If you have three people in front of the jury and none really have distinguished themselves, even if somebody of the three hasn’t irritated anyone, their chances are not certain to win. This is why Erik’s elimination was particularly good for them, because each needs to have the other against her in front of the jury to have a chance to win.

This is why Alexis was a dangerous player in the game and had to be eliminated, and why the most dangerous player remaining is Amanda. Alexis was the force with Natalie and any strategic move on her part would have earned her jury votes, but she never got to make them outside of Natalie’s shadow. But Amanda has made them, which makes her the biggest threat in the game now – no real baggage, and the strategic move last time to eliminate Alexis that earned her enough respect to vault her to the top. Her role in snookering Erik only has added to her luster.

However, it looks as if Amanda has arranged relationships so that she, Parvati, and Cirie (who it appears was told that Amanda had the hidden immunity idol last time just before the vote) are the intended three. It’s all very simple now: if Amanda is allowed to go in front of the jury, she wins. She’s got Ozzy’s vote, and may well have James’, Eliza’s, and even Erik’s vote after the latest revelations. Despite their promises, if Parvati and Cirie want to win, they need Amanda gone.

Selling her out, however, would be a big risk. Natalie already has Alexis’ vote and a scorned Amanda may take Ozzy with her to vote for Natalie, giving her a big lead with the jury. So if they want to win, they’ll have to be clever, by making their decision appear forced by Natalie’s winning immunity. Simply, they must endeavor to throw the last challenge and hope Natalie can be beat Amanda. It’s the only way Parvati or Cirie could win, and even so, Natalie still would have a chance.

But under this scenario, Cirie becomes the likely winner. Her thuggery was less evident in ousting jury members than was Parvati and Natalie’s, and all are equally deserving in terms of presenting arguments to earn votes. So unless really bizarre things happen, Amanda is the favorite heading into the home stretch, just needing to get in front of the jury. If neither Natalie nor Amanda wins immunity and the latter gets eliminated, Natalie becomes the favorite. If Natalie does win immunity, Cirie should be the favorite. Parvati’s position is the worst: she just has to hope to get in there with Natalie and Cirie and do something special. Interestingly, therefore, at least three and possibly all four still could come up a winner.

Breaking News: In case there was any doubt, Erik has been inducted into the Reality TV Hall of Shame!

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Micronesia articles on RealityNewsOnline:

When not watching for strategic elements in Survivor, Jeffrey D. Sadow is trying to teach about strategies inherent in international relations, diplomacy, governance, political campaigns, and lots of other neat stuff as an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport.

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