Survivor: Gabon – Why Jacquie Lost

Jacquie went from being in a solid – perhaps even great – position within one tribe to being out the door from another. How did she fall so far, so fast? Was there anything she could have done to save herself? Why did Jacquie lose?

As we do each week, we can answer questions like these by looking back at What Gabon Survivors Should Have Learned. So let’s begin!

As always, the first rule emphasizes the importance of plotting, scheming, and making alliances. Jacquie seemed to understand this, as when I interviewed her, she told me she had alliances with two groups – Corinne, Charlie, and Marcus in one, with Ace and Sugar as a backup. On top of it, she tried to convince Crystal, GC, and Ken to bring her into their alliance as well. She knew that in order to stick around, alliances were key.

But Jacquie just couldn’t quite convince the original Fang members that she would actually be loyal to such an alliance with them. Why not? Was it because she plotted and schemed too much, in violation of the second rule?

I don’t think so. I think instead it could be described as plotting and scheming too well. She was ranked as the highest woman within her tribe. That is likely because she had five other people ranking her fairly high, as they all thought they were tight with her. Under normal circumstances, that would be a huge positive. In this case, though, the Fang threesome (apparently led by Ken) were smart enough to realize that it meant exactly what it did.

So what could she have done in the realm of scheming? She should have followed the third rule and been flexible enough to try the one thing she didn’t do, but now realizes she should have: “In hindsight, I could have tried to vote out Ace.” Indeed, that was her main hope. Sure, Ace was great in challenges, but Jacquie had proven her worth as well. She should have told them that if they were willing to take out a physical player, they might as well take out the one they were actually afraid of. If they thought she had an alliance with Ace and that Sugar also had an alliance with Ace, she could have encouraged them to take out the nexus. Volunteering him up would also have “proven” her loyalty to them.

But Jacquie didn’t do that – probably because, as she told me, “They all promised me they were going to vote out Kelly, so I seriously felt really safe… Kenny and Matty promised almost their life they weren’t going to vote me out.” So since she thought she was staying, why give up her ally? She just didn’t realize they weren’t telling her the truth.

Just to be clear: Jacquie was flexible – as noted earlier, she had two alliances and was trying to make a third. But she wasn’t quite flexible enough to offer up one of her allies as a sacrifice to join the third.

The fourth rule says players cannot allow their emotions to control them. In this regard, Jacquie seemed fine. After all, she seemed to understand that she would have to pick one side or the other – or maybe even both, depending on the circumstances. I don’t think she failed to offer up Ace because of any illusion of friendship – she just didn’t think it was necessary.

Jacquie also succeeded at the fifth rule, pretending to be nice. Well, mostly. She obviously didn’t win over Kelly. However, we have conflicting stories of why they didn’t get along. Jacquie said everybody at original Kota had fun except those who separated themselves – namely Paloma and Kelly. Kelly said they were never invited because they weren’t part of the in crowd. Having seen what I’ve seen and talked to Jacquie outside the game, I believe Jacquie is telling the truth as she sees it. Maybe Kelly is as well, but just sees things much differently. We’ll worry about that another day. In the meantime, I feel safe in concluding that Jacquie did fine in terms of this rule.

The sixth rule, however, caused her problems. It says not to be too much of a threat, and a threat is exactly what Jacquie was. No, not because she did well at challenges – the original Fang alliance didn’t seem worried about that at this point. Instead, Jacquie posed a strategic threat. They figured (correctly) that if they voted out Kelly, Sugar would come in and align with Ace and Jacquie, and they might play Hide the Idol to keep the original Fang guessing. Even worse, they might align with Matty and boot out the original Fang outcasts altogether! So Jacquie’s allegiance to her original tribemates was a threat that had to be terminated immediately.

The seventh rule applies to the rest of the tribe, telling them whether to vote off a weak or strong player. At this point, it would seem they should have targeted the weak so they could do better at challenges. However, proper strategy had to come into play rather than worrying about winning immunity. Ken, Crystal, GC, and Kelly are now a solid four, with Matty as a hanger-on. If they fare as poorly at immunity challenges as they did their first time around, they can boot Ace or Sugar – if they can avoid the idol. If they happen to hit the idol, then one of the original Fang would go, but they might still have a majority if Matty sticks with them. Once the idol is gone, they wouldn’t have to worry. Overall, it was the safest bet for their longevity in the game, even if they lose all the remaining immunity challenges.

Ken led the way in thinking strategically throughout the fourth episode. Indeed, even Jacquie was surprised, telling me, “they were pretty smart in knowing I wasn’t genuine. I was shocked at how strategic particularly Kenny was.” Jacquie was herself a strategic player, but she was put into a difficult position with the tribal redraft. She tried to make an alliance to save herself, and from the looks of things, she almost succeeded. I think if she had taken the one final step of offering up one ally as a sacrifice to make new allies, she would still be in the game. But while Jacquie was a good schemer and plotter and followed most of the other rules, she came up just short in that one area. That is why Jacquie lost.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Gabon articles here on RealityNewsOnline:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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