Survivor: Tocantins – Who Will Go in Episode 3?

The first rule of Survivor is to learn to make fire before you leave American soil. Now I think that the contestants should also know what a pace is, or what 10 paces are. Dimwit Sandy didn’t have a clue in the first episode and if it weren’t for Brandon helping her, Sierra would have certainly gone down the same clueless path.

Speaking of clueless, how many in this season’s cast don’t understand the concept of making alliances and building trust early? Trust is key in this game (along with making fire and counting paces). It became very clear in the exchanges at Tribal Council that there are some who do get it and some who think they have built trust and clearly haven’t. The few who have started alliances are smart.

The J.T.-Stephen man-crush is going to be a key team this season as the two work with each other and balance their talents. J.T. is a leader in his own right with as he is providing guidance and sustenance to the rest of the tribe. His faithful sidekick, Stephen, will likely become a more subtle leader of the group as his brains will be his asset. Pre-season I didn’t see him making it far because of his lack of outdoor skills, but these two pairing up will temper that problem for Stephen considerably.

I think that Jerry and Tyson may be working a much more subtle alliance. Have you noticed how the two are together regularly and communicate with eye-contact? Did you see how they looked almost like the two old men in the balcony of The Muppet Show, watching the comedy unfolding in front of them? I suspect that they are sort of allowing Coach to run the show in appearance, but they are cooking up a plan to get rid of him when the time comes. They see that he will dig his own grave, so there is no need to call attention to the pair forming. I’ll get to more on Coach later.

Stepping away from the coupling for a moment, the editing surrounding Tyson is one that interests me. In the first episode, he was given a slight clown edit with the naked waterboy scene, complete with what I would call comedic porn music in the background. (Is there porn comedy? That’s another subject that might be better for this season of The Bachelor.) He has had many good strategic-centric quotes though through the two episodes. As much as I didn’t like him in the pre-season interviews, I think this guy will be underestimated and will go deep into the game. Let’s continue to watch his edit grow through the season.

Back to pairings, Brandon is building several relationships. He is trusted. Initially we saw Sierra come to him to help her find the idol as he was the only one she trusted. I think this might just be what saves her from an early demise. He appears to be pulling her into an alliance, if only to shelter himself with a pawn later.

Brandon also made a good move in some sort of an early pact with Taj. He listened to her, finding out that she is an outcast in her tribe. The information is good and it may come in handy in the future.

So let’s talk about Coach for a moment. Coach is a creep. Seeing him try to lick Candace and sidle up to several of the girls already made me want to just gag. I’ve been around jerks like this and can sniff them out pretty quickly. I know I thought that he might actually make it to the final three, but now that I’ve seen this tool in action, I think he will be voted out, much like Ace was last season. And I hope he is.

Right now, Coach is being led to believe that he is in control, but I really don’t think he is. He thinks he wants to take only the strong to the finals, but he saved a weak player in favor of a stronger woman, both physically and mentally. He is cozying up with outcast Sierra, unsure Erinn, and dingbat Debra, though I suspect at least two of these ladies know what he is doing. I think that the men on the tribe see him for what he is and are just waiting. Even Jeff pointed out during the challenge that Coach was fading. I suspect he will fade fast and not last much longer.

I think the heat is off of Sierra for the time being. There are statements that she made in the first two episodes that the editors gave us which tell us that she will last a while. She will outlast Coach for sure. According to a clip in Survivor Insider, she resents Coach, but knows he is protecting her temporarily. Their relationship loosely reminds me of the Ace-Sugar pairing last season where in the end, she outlasted him by a mile. Sugar took control of her game and perhaps Sierra will do the same.

This week, I think the two players who might have the greatest chance of leaving are either Erinn or Debra. Last week during Tribal Council, we were meant to see the clash between the two women about their views on where trust is at this point. The cymbal sound punctuated this exchange so that we took notice.