Survivor: Tocantins – Why Brendan Lost

Brendan held an immunity idol but didn’t play it. He had a secret alliance that didn’t come into play. Yet he was in a power struggle with Coach – and he was the one sent packing. How did two powerful points in his favor end up failing to keep him in the game? Why did Brendan lose?

Considering how many people Coach has pissed off so far and the way the editing has portrayed him, it might seem odd that he came out on top in the battle between him and Brendan. After all, isn’t one of the rules in What Tocantins Survivors Should Have Learned all about pretending to be nice? But, of course, that’s not the only rule, or even the first rule. So let’s take a look at all of them to see what we can figure out.

Since I mentioned the rule about pretending to be nice, let’s jump right to the fifth rule, which discusses that point. Brendan certainly accomplished the goal of being a nice guy and making friends. Heck, he even did so across tribal lines! He even told me, in our interview, “I tried to be friendly and trusting with folks…” So Brendan was fine in this regard.

He was even better when you compare his situation to Coach’s. Coach had a tendency to piss people off, annoy them, make them roll their eyes, and cause them to disbelieve every word that came out of his mouth. So in comparison, Brendan was golden.

But, again, that was in terms of the fifth rule. Going back to the first rule, we are reminded of why it is the most important. It emphasizes the need to scheme and plot, something that Brendan did earlier in the game, but then failed to do when it really mattered. Indeed, the end of the quote I started above is, “…and other people are there to slit each other’s throats.” In other words, they were scheming, he was befriending – and he ended up with the knife in his back.

As I said, Brendan plotted early in the game. In fact, he set up what could have been a great cross-tribal alliance. The problem was that he didn’t carry through with it once the merge occurred. As he told me, when he got to the merge, “I didn’t really know how to react. From there, everyone knew that I was with Taj so much that I tried to purposely distance myself from her initially.” He was so worried about being seen with her and letting others think they had an alliance that he made her believe there truly wasn’t an alliance! Whoops!

If Brendan had made his way to Taj or Stephen – or had Sierra do likewise if he was really that concerned about appearances – I firmly believe the Exile Island alliance would have held the day. Instead, he let Coach get the jump on him. Once people are in what they believe is a solid alliance, there needs to be a very good reason to get them out of it. Brendan didn’t have a good reason. He needed to be there first, but by the time he made his move, it was too late.

The second rule discusses scheming and plotting too much. Earlier in the game, several members of his tribe – notably Tyson and Coach – felt Brendan had spent too much time with members of the opposing tribe and had possibly made inroads there. They were right! They were already on opposing sides within their tribe, but this ensured they really wanted Brendan out. It didn’t directly contribute to his ouster after the merge, but it helped draw the battle lines earlier.

Third is to be flexible. By coming up with the idea to form a cross-tribal alliance, I think Brendan was being very forward-thinking and flexible. If he had a good position within his own tribe, he could have led on the others from the opposing tribe and eliminated them. And vice versa if the situation warranted using the Exile Island alliance. However, Brendan failed to make good use of that flexibility, as already described above.

Brendan did fine in terms of the fourth rule, which discourages allowing emotions to control you. He seemed pretty rational about the situation and handled it accordingly. Not well, but at least without getting emotional about it.

However, the sixth rule was certainly a problem for him! He was the biggest threat in the game from the perspective of most players. As Coach said (repeatedly), Brendan was the head of the dragon. He was the only one working on an opposition strategy against Coach and Tyson. He was a threat in challenges as well. From the perspective of Coach and Tyson, there was nobody who could have possibly made a better target.

What about the others? Well, besides the fact that an alliance had already been created and, as I noted earlier, it takes a good reason to switch, I believe the other players in the alliance saw Brendan as a bigger future threat than Coach. Brendan was better in challenges (though not better than Tyson). More importantly, Brendan was a nice guy and could have been a threat in front of the jury if it got that far. I cannot see anybody losing to Coach. So that makes him a perfect person to bring to the end!

Oh, and let’s not forget that Brendan had an immunity idol. This fact made him that much more of a threat, so it was the right time to blindside him.

Does that mean the rest of the tribe did the right thing in voting out Brendan, according to the seventh rule? It’s a tough call. Brendan was more honest, so they could be assured they wouldn’t be stabbed in the back by him. But he was, as noted above, also a much bigger threat. I think they probably did the right thing for this point in the game – though they need to ensure they have enough votes to overthrow Coach and Tyson when the time is right.

Brendan thought he was in a good position, but as the old saying goes, the early bird gets the worm. It might seem that Brendan was the early bird, but he was too late once the merge hit. He needed to reaffirm his secret alliance’s status, but failed to do so. That gave Coach the perfect opportunity to slip in and steal the allies to use against a man who represented perhaps the biggest threat in the game. That is why Brendan lost.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Tocantins articles here on RealityNewsOnline:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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