Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 13: Survivor: Katie

Since almost to the end of this edition of Survivor there’s been next to no strategy, perhaps we should give this season’s series a new name to indicate as such. Hey, I have an idea for a new name, let’s call it Survivor: Katie, because everything that happens there is all about her (as Ian discovered)!

Now, one could write a page full of castigating remarks about the strategic vacuum between her ears. After all, she decided to set herself up against the two surest people to beat her in front of the jury, Tom and Little Tom, instead of giving herself half a chance to win (perhaps that’s generous) by trying to maneuver herself up against Caryn. Instead, she abets in sending off the person she’s most likely to beat. Is there any understanding her if you are homo sapiens strategia? (P.S. do not write me to tell me I have mixed ancient languages – it’s called literary license.)

But wasting electrons in outlining her shortcomings would be unfair because somebody else, unbelievably, made an even bigger strategic error – Jenn. Let’s see, she entered input into the neurotic musings of Katie and Caryn about their statuses only enough to egg them on to form an all-chick alliance, making them think it was their idea when of course that was her goal all along – at least until Tribal Council. If it weren’t for the guys, she would win every immunity against clueless Caryn and clue-free Katie. If she could just get them to throw over Ian and then maybe a day later Big Ian, she’s almost home free… so instead she throws Caryn overboard too, regardless of what Katie was going to do!

I will do my best to speculate what could have been running through their minds. Maybe Katie is more self-aware than we ever could have been led to believe and knows second is the best she can do, and she would rather see one of the guys beat her. Maybe Jenn has been holding back all of this time, just waiting to turn it on to win the two immunities in a row she knows she can win to set herself up against Katie in front of the jury. The first you can almost believe, the second, well if you believe that, for lots of cash I can get you a night in the White House’s Lincoln Bedroom where you can rap with President John F. Kerry ….

And to round out the idiocy, here we have Tom and Little Tom unable to decide who to have as their winning vote. Even if Katie would have been easier to beat in front of the jury (where she might get no votes against the guys), Caryn should have been the guys’ choice to bring along. Katie has proven herself untrustworthy so the smartest thing to do is cut and run and put your eggs in the Tom basket with Caryn. Even so, keeping Katie at four was obviously better than Jenn, who already has a guaranteed vote from Gregg and probably from scorned Coby and Janu as well, so she should have been shot out of there immediately. Why carry a far bigger threat closer to the end when you’ve got perfectly good deadwood just waiting for you to haul in front of the jury?

Enough of trying to explain the unexplainable, on to the last few days of this strategic void of a series. By far the biggest loser in this exchange is Jenn. The guys do not (uh, with these characters, let’s say should not) want to take her any farther so she has to win immunity this next time out or she’s gone. Assuming she doesn’t, whichever guy wins the final immunity brings Katie with him to the jury and the victory to him. If the sun rises in the west and Katie wins the final immunity, she brings in front of the jury whichever guy she likes the best and wants to win the game (likely that silver-tongued devil Ian).

But if Jenn can break the Tom/Little Tom stranglehold on immunity at four, things become very interesting. She would (OK, I should say should) realize a guy would have to go and Katie probably would prefer Ian to stay. Then Jenn would have to win again to prevent Ian’s winning as he and Katie would take each other. So Ian, who if there was any strategic acumen among the females had been headed to the outhouse, now suddenly is in the penthouse. It goes like this:

• Jenn wins the game only if she can bag two immunities in a row and makes sure the guys go in turn.
• Tom wins only if he wins two immunities in a row (more likely than Jenn doing so) because he, having brilliantly given up Caryn, always comes up short against the Ian-Katie axis, meaning Jenn and Ian would go in that order.
• Ian wins only if neither Jenn nor Tom run the immunity table (unless truly weird things happen that change jury voting substantially).
• Katie wins when we all flap our arms and fly to the moon (with the above caveat).

Meanwhile, the viewing audience wins only if somebody decides to play some good strategy. But with these pins lined as they are, it doesn’t take good strategy for things to happen, just the distribution of immunity wins. While in the past some people have come out of nowhere in the last few days to play well (Vecepia being the prime example), this time I can see realistically that nobody from this series is going to make my Top 15 strategic performances. Nonetheless, we’ll tune in to see if somebody can anyway.

If you haven’t already done so, make sure to check out the other Episode 13 columns already posted:

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

Be sure to sign up for our e-mail update so you can stay informed about new articles on the site! And take a look at the rest of the site. You can find all of our recaps and other info on this show at the Survivor: Palau page, and take a look at our Amazing Race 7 page and our My Big Fat Obnoxious Boss page. You can even buy reality show stuff at our Reality TV Store!

For more news about Survivor, be sure to check out SirLinksALot: Survivor Palau and Survivor Fever!