Survivor: Guatemala - Who Will Go in Episode 1?

Welcome back to another wonderful season of Survivor. Last season, beginning with the fourth episode, I began predicting the next castaway to be... well, cast away during each episode. Each prediction was spoiler-free and based only on my own meager understanding of logic and human behavior. Nonetheless, I managed to end the season having correctly guessed 9 out of the 15 remaining contestants.

Now I return to once again attempt the impossible. With no spoiler information, I shall once more try to predict the next Survivor contestant to be voted off the tribe every week.

This first week presents quite a challenge. It is an exceedingly difficult task to predict the first boot without having even watched an episode yet. The Survivors have yet to reveal any of their personalities beyond the meager biographical information found on the CBS website. And despite some speculative strategy here and there from some of the players, there’s really not much that I can definitively draw from for the first week.

Sure, I could say that Brian has it in the bag because he’s ready to “lie, cheat, steal, and flirt.” (Why does everyone always say cheat and steal when they mention lying? How do you cheat in Survivor? How would stealing anything ultimately help somebody to win the game?) Or I could say that Danni will be the first to go because she’s only on the show for her looks. I could even predict Blake the winner, because he’s from my hometown (well, that does give him some extra points in my book). But ultimately, this first episode is a crapshoot. A monkey with darts would have as much chance as I have of correctly picking the first to be voted off.

But fret not, dear compatriots, for I have a plan! In the absence of an armed monkey, I’ve developed a sure-fire system for determining the victim of the first torch snuffing.

Each Survivor has listed in his or her bio a favorite cereal. I have determined that the first person to go will be the Survivor with the least impressive choice of cereal. I’m certain that cereal selection will be a key factor in the voting process. And this is obviously vital information on which to base my predictions; otherwise CBS would not have included it as part of the application process. Right?

Here is the list of the Survivors and their cereal preferences:

• Amy – Shredded Wheat
• Blake – Cap’n Crunch & Cinnamon Toast Crunch
• Brandon – Lucky Charms
• Brian – Honey Nut Chex
• Brianna – Quaker Oat Bran Hot Cereal & Special K Red Berries
• Brooke – Special K Red Berries & Lucky Charms
• Cindy – Cracklin’ Oat Bran, Quaker Cinnamon Oatmeal Squares, & Honey Nut Shredded Wheat
• Danni – Lucky Charms
• Gary – Honey Nut Cheerios & Honeycombs
• Jamie – Fruity Pebbles
• Jim – Cold rolled Irish oatmeal & Grape-nuts
• Judd – Frankenberry, Frosted Mini-Wheats, & Crunchberry
• Lydia – Grape-nuts Flakes
• Margaret – Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes
• Morgan – Smart Start & Basic 4
• Rafe – Rice Krispie Treats, Trix, and Mini-Wheats with fruit

The first to move on to the next round is Jamie. Fruity Pebbles are (and always will be) the greatest cereal to grace God’s green earth. And Jamie will rightfully continue for at least three more days in the jungle.

The next three Survivors to move on are Brandon, Brooke, and Danni. Although Lucky Charms isn’t the greatest of the sugared cereals, those three can’t go wrong with the luck of the Irish on their side. Likewise, Jim will continue due to his love of cold Irish oatmeal (as gross as that may sound).

Blake will also continue. Although the wretched Cinnamon Toast Crunch gets him negative points, it is more than offset by the presence of the Cap’n himself at Blake’s side. The esteemed Cap’n Crunch will whip out his compass and guide Blake safely into the next round.

Speaking of the Cap’n, Judd rightfully picks the Cap’n’s Crunchberries as his cereal of choice. And even though his added love for Frankeberry and Frosted Mini-Wheats might make his transition to a good-rationed environment a difficult one, he should last at least until the next week.

Cindy’s inability to choose a cereal may evoke the kind of indecisive behavior that can be a death knell to some players (we’ll call this Christie/Dolly Syndrome), but I still think she’ll make it past the first tribal council. Don’t expect her to last too long after that, though.

Brian and Gary will use a touch of honey to sweet-talk their tribemates into staying around another day. Margaret will channel the spirit of Tony the Tiger and convince the others how “Grrrrreeaat!” she is. And Rafe will confuse everyone into letting him stay longer by letting loose with his eclectic tastes (silly rabbit, Rice Krispie Treats are for dessert, not breakfast).

Brianna’s foray into hot cereals should keep her tribemates sweating bullets (or at the very least sweating Quaker Oat Bran), but she won’t wither this early in the competition.

Morgan is close to being booted. Both Smart Start and Basic 4 are about as close to tasteless as one can get without turning into a dirty joke.

This leaves us with two people: Amy and Lydia. Both have chosen flavorless cereal concoctions as their favorites. Amy’s shredded wheat brings to mind the thought of what it would be like to eat a basket. While Lydia’s Grape Nut Flakes take the best of Grape-Nuts (the crunchiness) and replace it with the worst of Bran Flakes (the sogginess). While both cereals are horrendous in their own ways, I will go ahead and award the win to the shredded wheat for its longevity. I don’t expect Grape Nut Flakes to be around in another decade

Hence, Lydia will walk the path to the Loser’s Lodge this week, leaving the rest of the Survivors and their superior cereals to continue playing for three more days. Check in this Thursday on CBS to see how accurate the cereal method is for determining potential winners and losers.

Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He prefers bacon, eggs, and toast for breakfast. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.

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