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Survivor: Guatemala - Advice for the Remaining 8by Jeffrey Clinard -- 11/16/2005
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During tribal council, Gary and Judd both outright denied they had lied in the game. Of course, both have lied quite a bit in the game, with Gary denying his own identity, and Judd lying about the location of the hidden immunity idol, stating it was on the ground instead of the truth. When Jeff Probst asks if Survivors have lied in the game, it is a loaded question, though the response of Cindy is probably the best way to handle it. She said that the game requires lies in order to get to the end. She neither admitted or denied telling lies, but did justify the need for it.
However, just like in life, there are good lies, there are bad lies, and there are times to overlook lies. Judd's lie about the location of the hidden immunity idol was a bad one, simply because there were too many ways to get caught. Gary noticed his actions spoke louder than his words when Judd examined trees in his search, and mentioned it to a few people (see the insider footage). Next, I'm fairly certain that Jeff Probst would have continued to hand out clues to the winners of the reward challenges, if Gary hadn't made the whole issue moot by finding and using hidden immunity in the last episode. Finally, if Gary wants to force the issue, he can tell everybody where he found the idol. It would call out Judd as a liar, and Judd can't even pull out the clue to defend himself, and it would seal Gary's case againt him.
The question is what should the other members of his alliance do about the lie? Not trust him? Well, they shouldn't be trusting anybody too heavily to begin with, and Judd has kept his word on the important things (voting along with his alliance). However, the former Nakúm tribe has a six-two majority at this time, and even with a straight Pagonging they are only one or two votes away from having to cut one of their own from the tribe (immunity can force a premature crack). The numbers also mean that the Nakúm could cut one of their own now and retain control of the tribe. Whether or not that is a good move or not depends on whether the any of its members are plotting to usurp the power structure.
The reward challenge provided food for everybody based on their skill, and presented the winner with one of the side-effects so common to reward challenges after the merge. Judd was able to upgrade two of the other players to the head table, allowing them access to the open bar, desserts, and some food-trading. Judd selected Stephenie, who is probably his closest ally, and Bobby Jon, who wasn't an ally, but at the time seemed like he would be the first jury member (which he ended up being, though only after a couple of events shuffled moved Gary up to the front of the line, only to have his use of hidden immunity take him off the block). While there are often no easy answers to who to pick in such situations, the rest of the players will read something into it. It's what the challenge was designed to do.
Now that the game has it's first jury member, players will need to be more careful of which actions to take in order to avoid it and stand at the end. What should each Survivor be doing to get there? It's advice for the remaining eight.
Gary: I think you made a number of good moves in the last few days, even if some of them didn't work out as planned. I don't know if Jamie misunderstood you, or just lied, but your attempt to make yourself a part of the Nakúm alliance didn't work and simply made you a target. Fortunately, you realized you were vulnerable and saved yourself by going out and finding the hidden immunity idol. You were wise to hold it in reserve until the last second. While it didn't force the tribe to scramble for a new target, it did save you from being voted out. I think at this point you have a few options. First, you try again for a place in the Nakúm alliance, though as a replacement for Judd or Jamie rather than as a new member. Second, you can try to pry Lydia, Cindy, and Rafe away from them into a new alliance targeting the power players of Stephenie, Jamie, and Judd. Third, you can try to insert yourself into the structure of the power players, suggesting an alliance of the strong to take control of the tribe when there are seven players left. Finally, there is the old standby trick of winning immunity. Good luck!
Danni: You are still a vulnerable player, though Gary might be in front of you on the target list. However, never count on that for safety, as he may win immunity. You need to try to pry apart the alliance and position yourself as a swing vote in order to get deep into the game. The only real question is whether you can pry people away now (or replace them in the inner circle of power) or if it will take another week for your vote to have some value as a swing vote. I would suggest trying to pry away the players that don't seem to be part of the power core, such as Cindy, Rafe, and Lydia with the theory that they will be getting rid of the challenge threats while still having overall control of the alliance (your vote and Gary's would be outnumbered by their three votes).1 2 Next-->
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