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Survivor: Exile Island - Who Will Go in Episode 8?by Wesley Rice -- 04/06/2006
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This isn't normal operating procedure, but I must begin my article this week with a rant. Terry, Terry, Terry. What was he thinking when he won immunity? Is he really that narrow-minded when it comes to strategy? If he had let Nick win immunity then he would have been able to surprise Casaya with his hidden immunity, thus making the game 5-4 and opening the door for a Bruce defection. Our good Professor Sadow has detailed most of this obvious strategy fairly well, so I won't pursue it any longer. But I would like to make an addendum.
The smartest thing for Terry to do would have been to give Nick his immunity necklace immediately before the vote. This likely would have surprised the Casayans, causing them to possibly split their votes between Terry and Austin. Then Terry would have survived the vote and whittled away at Casaya's tribe without even having to resort to his immunity idol. Even if the votes were all directed at Terry, he still would be no worse off than a 5-4 vote with possible defectors.
At any rate, let's take a look at the new Gitano tribe and try to determine whether the original tribal alliances will hold. We'll do this by examining each player:
Aras – He's got a target on his head as an athletic and intelligent challenge contender, but he's also firmly ensconced in a majority alliance at present.
Austin – He's in danger not only because he's a strong competitor in a minority alliance but also because he foolishly admitted in Tribal Council that he intentionally dropped out of the last challenge to look nonthreatening.
Bruce – He should be safe for the time being; now that Terry has made the moves to solidify Casaya numbers. However, if his tribe mates realize that he painted the Dark Mark on the new Gitano tribe flag, they may think that he's a Death Eater and choose to rid themselves of him.
Cirie – Mama Cirie can do no wrong now. She has easily worked her way into the top four on her tribe, and she's well respected. Watch the Nuthouse Alliance tear itself apart and laugh it up, Mama Cirie. You've earned it.
Courtney – Courtney is one with the earth. Unfortunately earth is pretty useless stuff unless you find a way to manipulate it. Courtney is just a pawn, but she's a necessary component for the strategists on Casaya (read Cirie and Aras) at present.
Danielle – I actually think Danielle is in the safest position on the tribe right now. She's not a challenge threat, and she also hasn't stirred up as much ill will among her majority alliance as many of the others have.
Sally – Sally's just been lucky. There's not much more to say at this point. She may have been manipulating Austin before, but that’s a losing proposition at this point, given the numbers are not on their sides. I'm interested in seeing what she'll do next.
Shane – Shane's about as lucky as Sally. With all the times his name has come up for possible elimination, it's amazing he's managed to fight it off via immunity or merge.
Terry – I've already discussed what Terry did wrong last week. Can he make up for it? Well, given the previews on CBS, it certainly looks like he'll be doing the next best thing, using the hidden immunity idol as a deterrent. It makes sense; if others know you have the idol, it would likely keep them from voting for you in the first place. That way the idol serves a long-term purpose rather than a short term one.
Of the nine potential jury members I believe that Terry will be targeted again. But due to his immunity idol, one of Casaya will be gone. This could either be Aras or Shane. Given that he's likely to find new, oppressive ways to annoy Old La Mina, Shane is the most likely target yet again.
However, if Terry wins the immunity challenge again then Austin (as the second strongest from his tribe and an admitted deceiver from the previous Tribal Council) will see his walking papers. None of the Casaya members are in trouble at the present time, despite their antics.
On the baby front... This week I got started on my article a little later than usual. Unfortunately this means that my daughter has entered the land of the sandman, and there's no way for me to conduct the Great Blankie Experiment of 2006. However, I do believe that I've found a viable alternative to this method. I call it the Wake-Mommy-and-Daddy-up-in-the-Middle-of-the-Night Method. You see, my daughter is a profoundly light sleeper. So when simple noises occur at night, such as the air conditioning coming on or, say, a gnat flapping its wings, she wakes up (and, via her own finely developed language of cries and squeals, wakes her mother and me up as well). Because the late night awakening is virtually inevitable, I have decided to make it the gauge for her weekly picks. In alphabetical order I have assigned names of Survivors to hour-long segments throughout the night. Whichever hour she wakes up will correspond to the Survivor she's chosen to leave this week. The times are as follows:
8:00 – Aras
If she doesn't wake up until 5:00 or later then miracles really do happen, and I'm running out first thing to buy a lottery ticket. However, I'll leave a nifty little ellipsis, and if and when she does actually wake up, I'll post the result. Hours later for me but a mere second later for you...
...Well, she woke up and it's 12:47. That means Courtney is my daughter's choice to leave the island this week (let's hope for Mike DeGeorge's sake that my daughter is right). [Associate Editor’s Note: And for the sake of his fiance’s daughter, who is getting pretty sick of his Courtney-bashing.]
Picks this week: Shane gone via Terry's hidden immunity. If Terry has regular immunity, then Austin will follow Nick's path. And my daughter chooses Courtney. Stay tuned this Thursday for the latest results!
Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He misses the days of clever strategists like Shii-Ann Huang, or even Tom Westman. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at email@example.com .
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