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Survivor: Exile Island - Advice for the Remaining 8by Jeffrey Clinard -- 04/13/2006
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There has been a lot of talk about Terry and the hidden immunity idol, specifically how he could have gotten a majority of votes after the merge if he had given away individual immunity or thrown the challenge, then let the votes ricochet to a Casaya member (probably Shane). The four La Mina members, plus Bruce, would have had a 5-4 numbers advantage for the next vote.
However, if that situation had played out, Terry would have been vulnerable at any point where he wasn’t wearing individual immunity. So while Terry could have changed the balance of power, he would have become vulnerable himself. Terry is a major threat in physical challenges and would likely be the first target of La Mina once they had eliminated the Casaya people.
Indeed, a Survivor like Terry pretty much only has one path to get to the finals, and that is through the brute-force method. Being such a challenge threat makes him a target. Individual immunity has kept him off the chopping block. Fear of where the votes might land if he used the hidden immunity idol may also keep him safe. Terry may also make it to the point where he is suddenly a useful vote to one or more factions within the Casaya alliance. Indeed, while his attempts to snag a few Casaya votes failed, he still gained information about their internal workings.
The reward challenge was an interesting one that combined strength and political decision-making. The random draw put three strong men (Shane, Austin, and Terry) on one team and three women (Danielle, Courtney, and Cirie) on another, while the third had the rather strange mix of Bruce, Aras, and Sally. The obvious strategy was to load the coconuts onto the boat that looks like the biggest threat. Both the women and the mixed-gender groups did gang up on the male team, but at some point it should have been obvious that the women were absolutely no threat at all (in fact, they were still loading their own boat when the challenge ended).
As usual, the winning team had to pay for their breakfast in bed by sending two people to Exile Island. I’m not totally sure why Austin was picked, unless the goal was to minimize the chance of Terry getting the hidden immunity idol. It was kind of a moot point, as he had it already. However, a trip to Exile Island might have weakened Terry enough to the point where he would have lost the immunity challenge. The pick between Courtney, Cirie, and Danielle was also interesting, as all three were Casaya alliance members. I’m not sure what went into sending Danielle, except that I suspect she’s the ringleader among the women. Given some of her previous behavior, I would have thought they’d send Courtney.
In effect, that event broke the tribe into three separate locations, something the producers like to do. It provides bonding time among the people in their groups and is an ideal time for Survivors to plot against each other. Terry used the time to talk to Shane about his final four. Shane wasn’t very smart to answer him (assuming he told him the truth), but gave the names of two people who were away from camp.
While Terry’s attempt to bargain with the immunity idol failed, he has let the cat out of the bag regarding his ownership of it. Whether or not he can use this to scare people out of voting for him remains to be seen. However, assuming neither Terry nor Sally is wearing individual immunity, Casaya can force it to be used and get rid of Sally. It would require a 3-3-2 split with Terry and Sally getting three votes each, and a tiebreaker vote favoring Terry 4-2. Even then, I don’t know if the final vote tally would count as either three or two votes for Sally, and if the votes of Terry and Sally would also be considered once the hidden immunity idol discards the votes against Terry.
Overall, the immunity idol should be a factor, though we’ll see how it plays out. Plus, each Survivor should have their own agenda and plan to get to the finals. It’s advice for the remaining eight.
Terry: You’ve given the Casaya tribe a problem, as your hidden immunity idol could still lead to a backlash that eliminates one of them. Since your target changed from Shane to Aras, both should be worried about who you and Sally might vote for. In fact, you can put the fear into all of them by saying you don’t know what target you are shooting for before the vote.
Sally: With Terry holding the hidden immunity idol, you are probably the next target. That means you either need to win immunity or find a crack in the Casaya alliance. I’d suggest trying to talk to the other women in the game and see if there is room for a deal. Otherwise, you’ll need to hope that Terry isn’t wearing immunity and votes get bounced to a Casaya member. You need to play for time, but time is running out.
Cirie: For now, you have a good position in the game, as you are tight with the Casaya women and apparently figure into Shane’s final four, though I’m not certain his plan is going to work. Keep staying under the radar for now; there is no reason to target you at the moment.
Danielle: I’m not sure why you were selected to go to Exile Island, but don’t read too much into it. Right now your biggest concern is figuring out who the fourth vote you’ll need to control the tribe is going to be. The last remaining La Mina member should fit the bill, so you might see if Terry is interested in becoming a swing vote.
Courtney: Like the other Casaya women, you have a good position in the game. You need to find out what person will be your fourth vote in order to control the tribe when there are seven, but you don’t have any worries at this time.
Shane: You should never give away your plans to the enemy, as they can and will be used against you. I’m not exactly sure how you plan to make Aras, Courtney, and Cirie the other members of your final four. The three women seem fairly tight, so the only reason to get rid of Danielle is because she’s a bigger threat than the other two.
Aras: You should be worried, since the La Mina votes went against you, and they could easily do so again. Right now, you can’t afford to target Terry, even if he isn’t wearing immunity. Push hard to eliminate Sally, but if the alliance still wants Terry, it’s time to jump ship and let Terry know you won’t vote against him. The number one rule is to save your own skin.
Bruce: You’re in a problematic position as you aren’t really a part of the Casaya alliance but Terry can’t make the numbers work for you to get into a new one. Your best option might be to play for a little time and approach Terry with the idea of an all-male alliance once there are seven. If not, your vote might be useful to the Casaya women.
Austin: What went wrong? You were on the wrong side of the numbers game, and with Terry holding immunity, you were the next target. If things had gone a bit differently you might have done better, but sometimes fate deals you a bad hand. Still, you made it to jury duty.
Jeffrey Clinard has been writing about Survivor since the second series, and has published over 100 articles about the show and given advice to nearly 150 different Survivors on RealityNewsOnline. He can be reached at email@example.com.
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