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Survivor: Exile Island - Advice for the Remaining 4by Jeffrey Clinard -- 05/08/2006
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It amazes me sometimes how many times a person can be shown by example that they are being played, yet still believe all the excuses and justifications for the actions. Shane has been snubbed twice by Cirie, first when he wasn’t taken to the resort (Danielle had that slot) and then when he wasn’t told about the change in plan at Tribal Council to get rid of Courtney. Yet he still trusted his allies to be square with him in voting out Danielle.
I can only wonder what would have happened if Cirie had won the reward challenge and got to pick how the love was spread around. Shane would have had a fit if he didn’t get time with Boston either at camp or at the resort. Actually, the consequences of winning the challenge was designed to create fallout, though there was an awful lot less of it given that Terry, the single outsider, won the challenge. I have to wonder if Terry is a lot more perceptive than he’s letting on. He’s voted for Aras ever since the merge, even when he knew that Shane believed Danielle was going home next. In some ways it was bad that Terry’s vote wasn’t shown, as Shane would have known Terry didn’t help vote him out. Terry has quietly been buying friends on the jury. Courtney and Shane are volatile people who are likely to be angry during the final Tribal Council. Terry worked with Courtney and gave Shane the resort experience with his son. That might help him in the long run.
As for the rest of the Terry’s choices, I think it was pretty clear he didn’t want to give Danielle or Aras anything, as Danielle had wrecked his plans in the last vote, and he didn’t want Aras to be energized. That made Cirie a natural for having her husband go to camp. I’m a bit surprised Terry didn’t stick with his strategy of keeping Aras weak by sending him to Exile Island, but I figure he decided teaching Danielle a lesson was more important.
As for the immunity challenge… well, they might as well engrave Terry’s name on the necklace at this point. He’s not only won it every time, he’s won challenges that required things other than physical strength. He’s won memory challenges (the one where almost everybody else ate cheeseburgers instead), endurance challenges, and the last one, which required balance and careful pouring. As he noted, with the hidden immunity idol he doesn’t even need to show up for the next one, though he should still play to win. Winning it would allow him to protect somebody, thus buying a favor.
As always, the final four players should have some kind of plan to get to the end, and should have their jury opponent selected at this point. What is the position of each player, and what should they be doing to advance in the game? It’s advice for the final four.
Terry: No worries at all. You have hidden immunity, which is a free pass to the final three no matter what happens in the next immunity challenge. That puts you one immunity challenge away from a spot in the finals, and you have a decent shot to win given the current five jury members. If you do win the next immunity challenge, give the hidden immunity idol to Danielle in exchange for a vote against Aras and a final two agreement with her. Both actions make sense - Aras is dangerous in physical challenges (Terry is better, but he has a free pass to the final three in any case), and Cirie is a more dangerous jury opponent to her.
Cirie: I think you have a good shot to make it to the final three, as you are not seen as a challenge threat. Given there is no way to get rid of Terry, it’s time to jettison Aras and make a final two deal with Danielle. If Aras has immunity, there is no other target - you’ll have to go after Danielle. You should be able to make the final three by sacrificing either of them; then you’ll need to pray that the final immunity challenge is not the standard endurance test. You can beat Danielle and Aras easily enough, but Terry is a wild card, depending on the nature of Courtney and Shane. However, you’ll have strong arguments as to why you could win the game no matter who you face. You should want Danielle in the finals with you.
Aras: You have a huge target painted on your back right now, as you are the most dangerous challenge opponent who can be voted out. Therefore, your plan is simple - win immunity. If that fails, you could try to argue to Danielle that Cirie is too dangerous to be allowed near the final two and try to vote her out, leaving the votes to go 2-2 against yourself and Cirie. You could advance by winning a tiebreaker challenge.
Danielle: You are in a lot of trouble because you made the wrong decision by going after Courtney instead of Aras. In short, you voted out her and Shane, who were likely the two people you had a chance to beat in front of the jury. At this point, you’ll want to go against Terry and hope Casaya loyalty prevails. Deal with Terry - admit you were wrong to go after Courtney, and go after Aras or Cirie (whoever isn’t wearing immunity). If Terry is wearing immunity, bargain with him to go after Aras if he’ll give you hidden immunity.
Shane: What went wrong? Well, you ignored the clues that you were being played. You didn’t listen when it was revealed you were the one who mistakenly believed he was running the game. Cirie picked Danielle over you for the spa getaway, and you were left out in the cold from the last vote. You’ve been played for a long time and finally paid for it with your game life.
Jeffrey Clinard has been writing about Survivor since the second series, and has published over 100 articles about the show and given advice to nearly 150 different Survivors on RealityNewsOnline. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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