Survivor: Cook Islands - Advice for the Remaining 17

After all the pre-show hubbub about the segregation of the tribes by ethnicity, three episodes into the game the tribes became integrated. While tribe captains and the final mixture of the tribes was done by random draw, no player was allowed to select what might be considered to be their natural ally - a person on the same tribe as themselves. The end result was a bit skewed, as the random balloon bursts put three members of the former Puka and Raro tribes together (with two former Aitu and a single former Hiki). Then again, the other tribe has a vote-controlling alliance of three Hiki and two Aitu, so maybe things worked out in the big picture, though not for certain Survivors. Not-so-oddly enough, I haven’ t seen politicians jumping up and down praising the show the same way they condemned it sight unseen.

The challenge was a replay of the classic one from Survivor: Palau, though it seemed to take less time. The new Raro tribe had the strength advantage, and took full advantage of it going into the challenge. Their women lasted longer as well. It helped, but was probably not a deciding factor in the outcome of the challenge. Yul’s idea of fighting off the tackle was novel, though ineffective. It also underlined a mistake made by the new Aitu tribe when determining order; Cao Boi should probably have been in the middle of the group instead of at the end. It would have provided the lead position with some more slack while allowing two strong guys at the end to try to repel a tackle attempt.

Though only Becky and Yul know it, Exile Island is worthless to whoever goes, unless it allows them to duck Tribal Council. If that trend continues, then Exile Island can be played in more than one way. The first is to send a tribe member the winning tribe feels is going to be booted, effectively granting them immunity. The best reason to do that is to try to smash the alliances of the tribe and create dissent. This is better late-early game strategy, as it may appear members of some original tribes are being picked off one by one, as may happen in new Aitu. Right now, the better strategy is to send a member of the majority alliance to Exile Island, as the new Raro tribe did when sending Candice. It left Yul, Becky, and Jonathan scrambling for votes, which they were lucky to find. If new Aitu wins, they’d be wise to consider sending a former Hiki member (probably Nate) to Exile Island to even out the playing field with two members of each original tribe going into Tribal Council. In any case, Exile Island’s new purpose is to mess with the politics of the enemy tribe.

Two tribes and 17 Survivors remain. What should all of them be doing to continue in the game to win the million dollar prize? It’s advice for the remaining 17.

New Raro: Your tribe seems to have an advantage in strength, which is a good thing, but also youth, which I generally regard as a bad thing. Older tribes seem to have more wisdom, and tend to be more successful. However, strength came into play during the first challenge, and it worked in your favor. Don’t count on it being an advantage for long. However, your choice to send Candice to Exile Island was somewhat inspired, as it forced more politics. Keep that in mind for the future. For now, your best bet is to send Sundra off to Exile Island and force the eviction of Ozzy due to political reasons. It will weaken the new Aitu tribe greatly.

Parvati: I’ll tell you right now - if you continue to act like you have you’re going to get clobbered. You were one of the lazy people in the original Raro tribe, and you are severely outnumbered by workers in your new tribe. Also, the flirting strategy has been successful exactly zero times in Survivor history. A couple went to the finals in All-Stars, but it’s not a winning strategy. Besides, flirting can only get you three allies at most (J.P., Adam, and Nate). It won’t work on the women or Brad.

Brad: It’s hard to judge positions on your new tribe for now, but as one of the strongest members, it might be hard to cut you immediately, even if you are part of a minority faction. Look at how things are going, and if they aren’t looking good for your group, you might want to try to lure Parvati into an alliance with the men and her, as five votes control the tribe.

J.P.: As with most tribe members, it will be difficult to see your real position until you are tested by Tribal Council. Your best bet is to use the configuration of the new, updated Aitu tribe to your advantage by noting that there are six former Raro and Puka members and only one each of former Aitu and Hiki tribe members. Sell a counter-proposal to get rid of the former Puka and Raro members in your new tribe.

Nate: Great job catching the octopus. It provided a lot of meat, and made your good position even stronger. There are more Hiki members on this tribe than any other faction, so if you stick together and deal with only one of the former factions, you’ll control the vote. I’d suggest the former Aitu tribe as the enemy tribe is getting rid of them, but if there are personality clashes you can always bargain with another group.

Adam: You have a problematic position, as you and Parvati were not the hardest workers in the game, and it should have been evident by your shelter that the others moved into the slum of the Cook Islands (to be fair, you did win the tarps, but the lack of flooring is a danger signal). Unfortunately, you don’t have the numbers to protect yourself politically, unless you do some serious selling to some people. Be proactive; approach the Hiki tribe with yourself and Parvati and suggest the five of you can dominate the game. If you don’t, somebody else will.

Rebecca: You are one of the winners with the new tribe, as the ex-Hiki have more members than any other faction, and only need to pick up two votes. Have a conference with the other former Hikis, and decide who to bargain with. If you don’t, some bright person from another faction might beat you to the punch by saying that as the largest faction, it would be easy for the others to unite to pick all of you off (three free votes at Tribal Council) before having to go after one of their own. Cement your power base early.