Survivor: Cook Islands - Advice for the Remaining 15

I think Jeff Probst was a bit hard on Raro during Tribal Council, saying they have not done well in challenges. While they have lost three of the last four, and two immunity challenges in a row, they are actually closer to even since the tribes were integrated, with Raro claiming the first immunity challenge and the latest reward. Unfortunately, Jeff is correct if he’s assessing a major danger signal coming from the Raro tribe - their wins have been based on physical strength. Add even a dash of teamwork or strategy, and the Raro tribe has gone down the drain.

I don’t think I’ve made it a secret that, given a choice, I bet on the tribe with the higher average age to outperform the younger one. There are a lot of reasons, but one of them is that with age, a certain amount of ego goes out of the equation. Older men are less interested in being the alpha male and more focused on results, while women probably have the flirting option taken away from them, along with the accessories (figuring out how to make mud packs and cosmetics out of the local flora and fauna instead of getting fish and fire is a classic mistake). Plus, the older you get, the more mistakes people witness (both their own and those of others). It makes them less likely to repeat them, or recognize when a certain strategy isn’t going to work.

Raro won the reward challenge because they do have strength on their side. They’d have had more if J.P. had still been around, but overall there were plenty of other buff he-men to carry the load on the reward challenge. On the other side of this, a hidden element of many editions of Survivor (including this one) is that smaller people are an asset as well. Last week it was getting moved through a rope course; this week it was traveling on pole platforms (and getting all tribe members on top of a small one). However, there were other elements to the immunity challenge that helped give Aitu the edge they needed to win.

First, Aitu abandoned the third pole almost immediately. It was useless, unless the rules allowed the tribe to use it as a kind of tripod to carry the tribe member from platform to platform. Second, Aitu took a calculated risk to increase the gap between the poles for Becky to close the lead of Raro. While they didn’t catch up, they put pressure on Raro. That kind of pressure leads to mistakes, like the way Raro attacked the final, key element of the challenge. Their whole human Jenga structure collapsed because they didn’t have a strategy for getting everybody on the platform. They did get seven people up, but Rebecca, in her attempt to join them, caused the whole thing to collapse. Cao Boi fell off the structure once, but perhaps it was because he knew that it was better for him to fall than bring everybody down with him. In the end, it appeared Candice and Flica were hanging on the backs of other tribe members, giving Yul and Cao Boi much needed foot space for their final, coordinated move to win the challenge.

Both tribes are going to Tribal Council next time, so everybody really needs to consider their position in the game and how to advance. It’s advice for the remaining 15.

Aitu: I’m actually a bit surprised that you didn’t get a penalty for invading the other team’s camp. Of course, I don’t think Ozzy, Cao Boi, or Flica knew they had landed there, but you should have left once you realized where you were. Still, your tribe is showing that strength isn’t everything when it comes to challenges. I’ll be interested to see who goes home next; it might be a very telling Tribal Council.

Jonathan: You’ve made your second trip to Exile Island, though the key difference is that the first time the talisman was available, and this time it wasn’t. I wish you had tried to monitor the expressions of Yul, Adam, or Candice when you told Jeff Probst you thought the talisman had been recovered. It might have tipped you as to who had it. Right now you have a secure position and should not have to worry about being voted out.

Yul: Your expression might have given away the fact you possess the immunity talisman, but with all that was going on, I think you got away with it. Your position continues to be one of the strongest in the game, as you have both political allies and the hidden talisman. You also managed to snare the fifth vote your group will need to control the tribe. You are both safe and playing a great game.

Becky: You performed well in the challenge and have a solid alliance to back up your political game. That’s good news. You’ll be safe at Tribal Council and should be ready for the eventual merger. However, your time at camp might be better spent than comparing your underarm growth. Being lazy is noticed and can possibly be used against you in the future. When it comes to figuring out who to send home, I’d suggest Flica. Cao Boi is useful for fire, and Ozzy brings in food. Flica just isn’t as useful as the others.

Candice: You made a good decision by not joining Flica, Cao Boi, and Ozzy on their little adventure. Not only did you not row to Raro Island, but you didn’t have to listen to Cao Boi’s story in the process. Besides, you took the time to join the others of your alliance to pull Sundra in without fear of being overheard. The only advantage to going would be to spy on the outcast group, and that would be outweighed by the possibility of your own alliance taking advantage of your absence to plot against you. Well done.

Jessica: I’m impressed by your show of strength, balance, and patience in the immunity challenge. You crossed the distance standing up and showing great coordination. However, you just made my top list of dangerous people to go against in the final three challenge. All three of those elements often come into play during final immunity challenges. For now, your reluctance to initially grab Jonathan’s offer for the alliance is starting to hurt your position, as the four core alliance members made a deal with Sundra. You need to shore up your position with them. It may mean selling out Cao Boi to order to keep advancing in the game.