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Survivor: Cook Islands - Advice for the Remaining 11by Jeffrey Clinard -- 11/14/2006
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Smart Survivors should always examine their position in the game and know if they are in a strong one or a weak one. The ones in strong positions should always try to keep their positions strong, while players in weak positions should exploit any chance to shake up the status quo. That’s why I was shocked to see Candice abandon her strong position by declaring mutiny, and even more shocked to see Jonathan following her.
Both of them immediately made four enemies (Yul, Becky, Sundra, and Ozzy) in exchange for uncertain friends. Perhaps they thought it was their chance to get back with Parvati and Adam. If so, it was a risky venture as four votes did not control the vote. The ultimate irony was that good things happened to strategic nitwits. By voting off Brad, Nate, Rebecca, and Jenny ceded the political control of the tribe to the original Raro members.
The early jury duty presents a puzzle to Survivors who can do math. With 11 still in the game, the jury is set for ten jurists. That opens up the possibility for a tie vote. Indeed, even if there is just a final three, it means nine jurists and a possible 3-3-3 jury vote. I’m pretty sure that something will happen to resolve the situation to avoid a tie vote, but it might drive people nuts in the meantime as they ponder how it will play out. My own personal guess is that the final challenge will be for both reward and immunity, with the reward being the ability to nullify a vote of a jury member.
I liked both challenges, as they were new and weren’t really repetitive. In particular, I liked the depth charge immunity challenge, as rowing for precision is something new. Overall, I was amused by the way that Aitu won both challenges despite using everybody in both challenges. Raro had twice the number of members and should have been able to pick and choose the right players for the challenges, but went back to camp with nothing.
In any case, despite a new shuffle of players and tribes, 11 players remain in the game. What should each Survivor do to advance in the game? It’s advice for the remaining 11.
Aitu: I agree with Yul; I was shocked to see Candice and Jonathan abandon your tribe to live with Raro. Despite the tighter bonding of your remaining four members, every member of the Aitu tribe lost with the defection. Your tribe no longer can control the votes unless you remain intact and merge at seven or later.
Yul: Be glad you have the hidden immunity talisman, as the odds you are going to need it have improved. While you aren’t likely to get voted out soon, you’ll be merging short of allies. Be on the lookout for the minority faction in the Raro tribe - you can use them to force a new position in the game.
Becky: Even more so than Yul, you need to figure out the power structure on Raro in order to know which faction to create a new majority with. For now, you should be fine as you have your tightest ally with you, and Sundra and Ozzy should each be willing to sell out the other to save themselves if you return to Tribal Council. Remember that ten left is the traditional merge time, so you might consider getting rid of challenge threat Ozzy if it comes to it.
Sundra: You are in a precarious position, but I think you can work carefully through it into a better one if you play your cards right. The first card is to work to get rid of Ozzy if you return to Tribal Council. Post-merge, he’s probably the largest challenge threat in the game. You should also be part of a new majority alliance after the merge, which can help you for a few votes. At that point, I’ll be back for a new way to play out your cards.
Ozzy: While you are still of value to Aitu as long as two tribes remain, your position is going downhill. You need to merge with the rest of Aitu intact and your position then skyrockets. If not, you’re in a lot of trouble, as you are the probable target given the probable end of the two-tribe game and your ability to win challenges in the post-merge game. If it comes to it, be prepared to try to use your ability to get food as a selling point of you against Sundra, and if that doesn’t seem to be working, at least suggest the idea that Yul has the hidden immunity talisman, and suggest trying to force it out before the merge.
Raro: Even with two new members, your tribe lost both challenges. In addition, your tribe didn’t seem to consider the reasons why Candice and Jonathan chose to defect. The only good reason was to avoid being the next vote victim, or an attempt to take political control of the tribe. It seems if the plan was to take control of the tribe, it worked as the four remaining original Raro members now control the vote. Bad move.1 2 Next-->
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