Why Alicia Lost

As usual, we'll start with rule number one – scheming and plotting. Well, Alicia did the best she could in this area. Early on, she allied with Jeff (last week's loser), and then she stayed true to her tribe by voting as a bloc with Kucha. The main problem was that she was unable to break Ogakor's larger bloc vote, even with all the tensions because of Jerri. I'm not sure how much scheming and plotting it would have taken to convince Tina and Keith to turn on their tribemates – or if it would have even been possible. But the fact remains that Alicia and her fellow Kuchans couldn't pull it off, so Alicia suffered.

That isn't the only reason Alicia lost, of course. After all, Ogakor had a choice of four to get rid of. Skipping number two as being irrelevant here, we see that rule number three is really where the main cause of Alicia's departure comes in.

They are in the second phase of voting now. In the first, they needed to vote off the weakest members in order to assure tribal dominance. But now, they need to get rid of the strong opposition (getting rid of Jeff was an exception to that rule). Alicia is strong in more ways than one. As Jerri noted, her strength was intimidating to both the men and women, and they had good reason to fear she might end up beating them in any upcoming physical immunity challenges. Indeed, they lucked out to get a non-physical one this time around, leaving Alicia vulnerable.

But Alicia also had leadership qualities. She was competent and strong-willed – and she really knew how to wag a finger. Really, she was the only logical choice for the Ogakors to get rid of this time around.

In looking at why Tina and Keith (and Colby) haven't turned on Jerri yet, which would have saved Alicia, we move to rule number four: Don't backstab until you absolutely need to. Colby is in a great position – Jerri and Amber think he's on their side, Tina and Keith think he's with them. He doesn't need to make a move until all of Kucha is whittled away. Tina and Keith shouldn't be so sure of themselves, but I guess they're fairly convinced of Colby's loyalty. Jerri is completely certain, and will hopefully face a big surprise in a few weeks (if not sooner).

The main point is that it would be foolish for any of them to turn on Jerri just yet. By keeping her around, they assure themselves of another vote in their bloc (really, two more, since Amber follows Jerri like a puppy). So why stab her in the back now? No reason. And Kucha pays the price.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Ogakors are doing their best to pretend to be nice. Heck, it might even be legitimate, but they are definitely sticking to the idea of avoiding emotional bonds. Yes, they like the Kuchans better than they like Jerri. But they have a plan and they're sticking to it (at least for now). Sorry, Alicia.

It really comes down to this combination of reasons. Because Ogakor is still sticking together, it had to be a Kuchan. And because Alicia was the strongest – both physically and in personality – it was time for her to go. That is why Alicia lost.