RNO Roundtable - 'Survivor: The Amazon' Predictions, Part 3: Win, Place, or Loseby RealityNewsOnline Staff -- 02/12/2003
Okay, you've read what we think about the women and the men. Now it's time for our overall thoughts and final predictions. There is not exactly a great amount of agreement here, as only two out of eight writers picked the same person to win. Let's take a look at the thoughts and predictions from, in alphabetical order: David Bloomberg, Jeffrey Clinard, C. Brian Devinney, Jamie Goralski, Ken Kellam III, Phil Kural, Charlie Reneke, and Melinda Smith.
What are you initial thoughts about Survivor: The Amazon?
David: The whole "Battle of the Sexes" concept will be interesting - not so much because of the challenges, but because of the interpersonal issues and the way people think about who they should vote off. For example, a strong guy was a good bet to stick around at least to the merge in the past, but now on a team full of guys, if he doesn't get along with the main group, he's gone. On the flip side, being strong may become more of an issue for the women. But I think this season will be extremely character-driven, with egos clashing on the men's side and good team spirit for the women.
Jeffrey: The Battle of the Sexes will provide a different kind of Survivor, with people having another reason to bond with one another besides artificial created tribes. With it, I expect a few of the twists from past Survivors not to come into play, such as tribe-swapping. This makes winning tribal immunity extra important in the early game.
Brian: Well it can't be as boring as what we saw in Survivor: Africa and during Survivor: Thailand. I think the dichotomy of the "Battle of the Sexes" is, really and truly, nothing new. We saw something highly similar to this in Boot Camp, when the women stuck by the women and the men stuck by the men. Only once did a female recruit oust another female, and that was quickly followed by a male being voted out after another male succumbed to an injury and couldn't complete the competition.
What's going to be more interesting to watch, in my opinion, will be the male camp. Who is going to take a leadership role, who will be the one that wants the leadership role, and who is going to be the one to step back and let everyone else fight it out for the top dog position and slowly but surely put themselves in a better position by floating under the radar? Those are going to be three key questions that, when answered, will determine how well the men do. Once the alpha males have beaten themselves into the ground, it will then be those "under the radar" men that will swoop in to make it to the following rounds and ultimately be more successful.
The key to being successful on the male tribe is keeping the testosterone levels in check. Otherwise it's going to turn into a game of "let's get out the ruler and see who the real man truly is," and that's not going to work.
The women, I think, will have the better team work and ultimately the better team as they are working with each other and not against each other (or even worse, individually). The men are going to be quicker to point the blame at someone for their defeats while the women will be able to sit back, analyze the situation, and assess where the blame truly lies. Will there be drama with the women? Of course there will be. Will be on the extent of the men? Of course not.
Ultimately the women are going to be a far more cohesive unit and have a far more efficient team. Will their efficiency, though, result in more wins in the immunity challenges keeping their team intact? We shall see.
Jamie: In reading the bios I'm struck by how much more athletic many of the Survivors appear to be this time out. It makes me wonder if the challenges will be more physically demanding, thus requiring this, and if so how will they balance that to create an even playing field with the tribes divided by the sexes. I am really curious to see how they set up the challenges so neither cries foul due to perceived favoritism and it will be very interesting as well to see how the social dynamic is different this season without the male/female interaction until the merge.
Ken: It's easy to think the more physical men will dominate the team challenges. But everyone remembers how the older Chuay Gahn tribe eliminated the much younger and supposedly more athletic Sook Jais one by one. Also, there's no guarantee the men will be able to work together as a team any better than the women. In fact, with all the alpha males present, it's a good bet personality clashes will be more prevalent than in the tribe of ladies. I see the men forming alliances and becoming cliquish more quickly, and most likely one or more of the stronger, more athletic men will be ousted early on in a power struggle, a la Hunter in Marquesas. As for the ladies, the first evictee will probably be whoever has the most difficult time fitting in. In fact, whoever goes may just go unanimously, or at least get 5-6 votes. I do wonder if the tribes will be divided by gender up until the merge. Look for Mark Burnett to pull yet another wild card out of his sleeve after the first few episodes.
Phil: Well, I'm not sure what to think. Who even knows what kinds of twists and turns Mark Burnett has planned for us this time around. I think the whole battle of the sexes concept is a pretty good idea. My guess is that the guys are going to do better pre-merge, but mess up when they are joined by the ladies. However, girls can get catty so it will be interesting to watch. I'm sure the testosterone will be running over at the men's camp, so I'm interested to see who will start the drama on that side. I also think this will be one of the tougher Survivors, seeing as many of the personalities remind me of people from the Outback, which was my favorite season. Burnett really picked some interesting people this time around.
Charlie: Men vs. Women? Forget that, this Survivor will bring back the youth vs. elders saga that made Survivor: Africa one of my favorite installments of the series. If you don't believe me, just take one look at the Tambaqui tribe. From the very start, I believe Alex, Butch, Matthew, and Roger will be facing off against Daniel, Dave, Rob, and Ryan. I think that will be the story of Survivor: The Amazon when it's all said in done. It's just too bad that the women don't seem as interesting as the men, because we'll be seeing them around long after the last male has his torch snuffed.
Which contestants will not make it to the jury?
David: Dave, Rob, Ryan, Roger, Deena, JoAnna, and Janet.
Jeffrey: Janet, Jenna, Jeanne, JoAnna, Rob, Ryan, and Dave.
Brian: This is an easy call: Daniel, Ryan, Rob, Jenna, Joanna, Deena, and Matthew.
Jamie: Ryan, Matthew, Janet, Jenna, Butch, JoAnna, and Heidi.
Ken: Deena, Janet, Jenna, Daniel, Roger, Ryan, and Rob
Phil: Butch, Daniel, Rob, Joanna, Heidi, Christy, and Shawna
Charlie: With the men falling apart, I think all four of the twenty-year-old men will be gone before the jury, along with Janet, Christy, and Heidi of Jaburu. In order: Ryan, Janet, Rob, Daniel, Christy, Heidi, and Dave.
Melinda: Matthew, Daniel, Ryan, JoAnna, Jenna, Rob, and Janet.
What is your prediction for the final four?
David: Jenna, Shawna, Alex, Butch.
Jeffrey: Roger, Matthew, Deena, Christy.
Brian: Alex, Jeanne, Shawna, Roger.
Jamie: Deena, Christy, Jeanne, Roger.
Ken: Jeanne, Matthew, Butch, Christy.
Phil: Dave, Janet, Alex, Jenna.
Charlie: The end of the men will come quickly. The final four will be Deena, JoAnna, Jeanne, and Jenna. The order of elimination before the final four will be Matthew, Butch, Roger, Alex, and Shawna.
Melinda: Roger, Alex, Jeanne, Heidi.
And the winner will be…
David: Jenna - Yeah, I know it seems unlikely, but something just tells me this woman knows how to work people.
Charlie: The final two will be Deena and Jeanne. The order of elimination before the final two will be JoAnna and then Jenna. And finally, I officially predict that Deena will be the winner of Survivor: The Amazon.
So there we have it. Heck, with so many different predictions (not to mention the statistical ones provided by Professor Sadow), we're almost bound to be right about something! The only contestant who was picked by two writers to win is Jeanne. She was picked by five of us to get into the final four, followed by four for Roger and Alex and three for Jenna, Deena, and Christy. Ryan, Rob, and Daniel received no predictions for the final four.
Will we be right or totally off the mark? Time will tell, starting with this Thursday night. Make sure you keep checking back to see how we're doing!
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