Survivor: The Amazon - Advice for the Remaining Nineby Jeffrey Clinard -- 03/28/2003
Listen to me or you'll get the boot.
Plus, a belated couplet for last week (I left it out due entirely to my own negligence):
Take my advice or go down in defeat
Tribal politics divided the tribe in a 7-3 vote to oust Roger, with the minority coalition voting against Christy. We now have a four-person alliance from New Jaburu (Rob, Deena, Matthew, and Jenna), and three hangers-on (Heidi, Christy, and Alex), and two vulnerable ex-New Tambaqui members (Dave and Butch). With this situation, a few people need to be concerned about short-term survival, others about near end-game survival, and a few should be looking ahead to the end of the game.
With that, the Survivor Advisor once again examines the game from each player's perspective, and provides advice on how to stave off defeat, look for opportunities, or even plot out the end of the game. Everybody needs to be careful to avoid the mistakes that can cost them the game. Awareness of the game and how the politics are working is the key elements in both advancing and to winning the game at this point.
Rob. You did well in forming an alliance to knock Roger out of the game. The surprise was a one-shot weapon, but one you used to your advantage. What you need to be aware of is that this alliance is vulnerable to an early fracture. You think the five of you (yourself, Deena, Jenna, Alex, and Matthew) will get to that position, and you'll take it from there. However, Jenna might not want to kick out Heidi, and Alex might decide he doesn't want to play for fifth place. You need to pay very close attention as to how things are going, or you might find yourself frozen out of the alliance you created.
Deena. Well done in this episode. Everything from winning immunity (and getting a meal as well) to kicking out Roger before Dave (for jury purposes) showed you were playing intelligently. Everything considered, you need to watch out for the same things Rob needs to watch out for. The Jenna/Heidi situation needs to be examined carefully, and care needs to be taken with Alex as well. For now, concentrate on getting rid of Tambaqui while the momentum is in place.
Dave. It's advice I hate to give, but it is your only way out right now: Win Immunity. You're next on the chopping block, and probably nothing short of immunity can save you. You have failed miserably in several key aspects of the game. It mostly comes down to you playing by the Jaburu rulebook when it came to deciding which people Tambaqui should be kicking out. You should have taken out Heidi when you had the chance and focused on Jenna this time around. In order to have some chance at salvaging the game, you'll need to find members for a new alliance. You can start with Alex; he's probably the most expendable person of the Jaburu alliance when it comes down to it. You'll also need to try to recruit Christy, but you should leave that to Butch. You might also try Matthew and Heidi. Anybody who feels insecure in their position is somebody you'll need to try and win over before it is too late.
Butch. What is wrong with you? Trying to vote out Christy was the worst move you could have made. Even if she was on the hit list of the Tambaqui alliance, you of all people should have wanted her on the jury instead of completely out of the game. You had won her over. She could have been a valued alliance partner. Well, try and suck it up and try to recruit her. Ask her if she feels comfortable that the Jaburu alliance will take her to the finals. If she isn't (and she shouldn't be), try to offer her a deal with the ex-Tambaqui and other assorted outcasts. If that doesn't work, well, win immunity.
Jenna. You have a tough decision to make. Eventually you're going to have to decide if your bond with Heidi or the Jaburu alliance is worth more. Trust me, the alliance is worth more, and it's to your advantage to have Heidi on the jury (she'd probably vote you the big money). You'll need to play her close, but be prepared to cut her as one of the New Tambaqui tribesmen when it comes down to it. Otherwise, stick with your alliance; it can take you into the finals with the right play.
Heidi. Be careful. You might think you're a part of the Jaburu alliance, but you are really an outsider that is being used by them to rid the tribe of the Tambaqui members. Still, you have Jenna to work with, and that's the starting point. You should work with her to find a few allies to cut the other members of the Jaburu alliance once the numbers are whittled down. You might want to try and pull Alex and Matthew into this group and plan to cut Rob and Deena out once Dave and Butch are eliminated.
Alex. You need to start looking for the cracks in the Jaburu alliance. You are the fifth wheel in it and you'll need to find some allies to try and take out the core members before you're the next target. You're better off looking within the alliance rather than outside it. When it comes down to six, you'll need to pick a side of the Jaburu fracture to side with, and make the deal to get yourself into the final three. The time to prepare for the future is now.
Matthew. You've gone from being alone to being in a great position in the game. You're a part of the core Jaburu alliance, and you can use this position to get yourself into the final four. However, like the rest of the Jaburu alliance members, you need to watch out for cracks and work to stop them as quickly as possible. Your game plan should be to rid the tribe of Dave, Butch, and Christy. Then you'll have the bargaining position as the only players left will be the Jenna/Heidi combination and the Rob/Deena combination. You can offer up a deal with Heidi and Jenna to put yourself in the final three (Rob and Deena, besides being bigger threats to win immunity, also are more likely to have jury votes than Heidi or Jenna). You'll have a decent shot at immunity and a slot in the final two.
Christy. You're stuck between a rock and a hard place. You aren't a part of the Jaburu alliance, but the Tambaquis tried to vote you out of the game. Right now you are not a target, so you have some time to plan out your end-game strategy. What you need to do is examine the situation carefully. When it looks like the Jaburu alliance is close to having to turn on itself, offer up a deal with one of the factions to help vote the other out. This can advance you further in the game.
Jeffrey Clinard lives in Las Vegas, Nevada, with his kittens, Lam and Princess. He can be reached at email@example.com.
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