Survivor: Cook Islands - Who Will Go in Episode 10?

How was that for a twist last week? Thank you, Mark Burnett! Thank you for creating a vote that wasn’t entirely premeditated. As much as I respect the allied voting strategy that Richard Hatch devised in the first edition of this show, I love to see a vote based on intuition and not on submission.

And yes, that was the spoiler that I accidentally stumbled upon last week. I knew that there would be a double elimination, but I couldn’t very well tell you about it due to the spoileresque nature of the information. Nonetheless, I snuck in a prediction for the second elimination. Notice how I mentioned that Rebecca could be considered Jonathan’s “backup”? So I officially declare her a correct prediction. That said, I was totally wrong about Jonathan. Apparently Rocky the Squirrel is giving lessons, because this lemming learned to fly.

I completely underestimated him. After he began running his mouth off nonstop on Raro and putting his faith in the completely untrustworthy Candice, I figured he wasn’t long for the game. But he quickly realized his mistake and signed up for lessons at the Ozzy Lusth School of Mass Provisions and Voter Persuasion. Good for him.

So let’s consider the rest. Raro is now down to five, and Aitu sits tight as a much stronger group of four. Those look like merge numbers to me. But with the way this season is playing out, you never really know. Probst did mention the possibility that there would be no merge, didn’t he?

After dabbling with a new format last week (posting the CBS website’s next episode bullet points and responding to them), I’ve decided to continue with the same format again this week. So let’s check out the first point.

1. One Survivor’s leadership style quickly begins to annoy their fellow tribemates, who would rather work at their own pace. This Survivor knows their team must work if they want to win the immunity challenge. Will they be able to motivate their tribe, or will their pushy ways put them in jeopardy?

I’m tempted to point to the obvious candidate, Jonathan, and be done with it. He certainly fits the bill. However, when I did the same with Ozzy last week, I received a deluge of emails telling me just how wrong I was. And you all were right. So I’m still going to say this is Jonathan, but this time I’ll do so tentatively.

2. When another shocking surprise is revealed to the Survivors, the lines are quickly drawn between tribemates. Will the Survivors stay true to their alliances, or will this news stir up the game?

Another shocking surprise? Could it be the merge? I wouldn’t necessarily call it a surprise, but the Survivors certainly must be wondering if one will even occur at this point. Plus, a merge would indeed force the tribemates to “draw lines.”

3. Yul reveals his possession of the hidden immunity idol to a few select tribemates. How will this information affect his position around camp?

The wording of this point also leads me to expect a merge. It mentions Yul revealing his idol to a few select tribemates. I imagine this refers to Ozzy and Sundra. But if they were still in separate tribes, I imagine the wording would have been, “Yul reveals his possession of the hidden immunity to the rest of his tribe.”

That also helps explain just why Yul would reveal the information. If he were still in a smaller tribe where he might be forced to use it, he likely wouldn’t reveal its presence to Ozzy or Sundra. Now, however, he’s going to need them to be “in on it” with him when it comes time to take Raro by surprise.

4. One Survivor considers betraying their alliance at Tribal Council and voting out an ally, a decision that will cause drama back at camp. Which way will they vote?

Hmmm… I can’t imagine anyone left on Aitu turning on their alliance. Come to think of it, Aitu is just one big alliance, so this gives even more credence to speculation for a merge. Raro has a couple possible candidates. Jonathan is always a risk for a defection. But I think the defection this time around is Nate. Nate has consistently voted with his gut, and last week’s vote should give his gut a lot to think about. Nate voted with Jenny against Jonathan while the rest of the tribe turned on her. He will likely notice this and play it smart by switching to Aitu upon the merge.

Another reason Nate might defect at this point is simply team cohesion. Things never have gelled among him and the rest of Raro, leading to countless immunity losses for his tribe. As a competitive man, he may want to switch to the tribal alliance with the competitive drive that matches his own. Aitu would have been a good fit for Nate, and I have a feeling he might still consider it to be that way.

So if Nate switches sides, who becomes the target.? My guess is Adam. Aitu will recognize the challenge threat upon the merge and quickly target him. If he wins immunity, or if there is no merge, then Jonathan is once again in trouble, however. Oh, and if Raro wins immunity, Ozzy is still the lowest man on an admittedly close-knit totem pole.

Watch with me on Turkey Day as we anticipate a merge and Adam’s ouster!

Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Wichita, KS. He’s been practicing his Russian accent ever since he started writing this article, just so he can say “moose and squirrel” the right way. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at .

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