Strategic Overview of Survivor, The Finale: Runaway Jury

Before proceeding into the analysis of the last days of Survivor: Cook Islands, it must be noted that the institution of a three-person tribal council is just a really bad idea, and it will have a negative impact on the game in future editions even if never gets used again.

No strategy-based game can be such if there are not some very basic fixed rules about it. There can be much room for flexibility; for example, changing up when merges occur, or even introducing double send-offs. But changing dates and numbers of people sent packing represent surface changes while keeping the basic rules of play: a merge will occur, and a majority of votes will send someone home.

To change the absolutely basic rules takes away the ability of any player to use strategy, and turns the game increasingly towards chance outcomes. For example, what if suddenly Mark Burnett decided for a particular tribal council vote that only a plurality would be needed (guess what, that’s what he essentially did with this jury vote)? With no fundamental rules by which to guide behavior, strategy cannot be formulated, and if doubt is put into players’ minds that there are any fundamental rules, the same applies. The three-person final vote is just such a violation.

If I wanted to watch something where luck primarily determines winners and losers, I’ll go down the street to the casinos and watch people play blackjack. (Even there, the rule that the two cards that comprise blackjack as a hand win; it doesn’t become three at a whim). But I watch and write about Survivor because the strategy interests me. I’ll do neither if this trend continues.

While I’m complaining, I’ll mention there needs to be some clarity on what “tribal council” is. Last week’s blurb at the end of the show implied there was going to be two, or three, people in front of the jury, depending on how you defined the term. Things only got more confusing this week when, at four, Jeff Probst welcomed them to “the final tribal council,” but then later during the jury vote a graphic said the same thing. At least the question about possession of the hidden immunity idol got clearer, another matter of confusion as different players seemed to believe different things about when possession applied for use. The last impression with which we were left was possession counted before the last vote read, but clarification on this in the future would be most welcome.

As it turned out, the three-person finale may well have influenced the eventual win. What if Ozzy had continued his torrid challenge win streak at three? This would have meant the end of Yul and the win to Ozzy. That challenge probably would have been the endurance one at four which Ozzy did win, but Yul probably did not have as much motivation knowing he was through into three. Then again, Yul could have won at four as well (note more often than not he finished second to Ozzy in these, and not by much). We’ll never know, but the chance that the alteration could have changed the outcome is non-trivial.

Regardless, the final three were a satisfying bunch, one of the best ever (Neleh vs. Vecepia and Brain vs. Clay springing to mind) in a clash of titans. And, once again, Yul may have made a good move to increase his chances of winning, such as then one involving voting off Jonathan over Parvati. We now know he actually had done the same several days earlier when ejecting Jonathan which then seemed questionable given Jonathan could have remained loyal to him to the end (and did vote for him), because Adam promised a vote to Yul if Yul made it to the final if Jonathan went out prior to him.

This likely was the winning margin. Except for that, Adam probably would have followed the spiteful course of Candice, who one could tell that she was still peeved at being shown on national TV through her being outmaneuvered that she was not the smartest girl in the class (maybe for the first time in her life) and whose vote Yul could not have gotten in any event (as far as we can tell).

Knowing Adam’s promise also introduces more interesting speculation: was he trying to sandbag Ozzy with his question to have him denigrate the other two? That was an absolute trap of a question – Ozzy should have declined and said he wanted to be evaluated on the merits of his game only and he was not going to criticize others. Whether that answer lost him a crucial vote or more we don’t know, nor whether Adam – who never showed a glimmer of valid strategic thinking in the game – against type intended this to trap him to assist the guy to which he had pledged a vote.

Less obvious is the smart move Yul made when it became apparent that a tie loomed between Becky and Sundra at four. Although in retrospect it was unnecessary, the fact is Yul should have preferred a final three with Sundra rather than Becky, because Becky was a much better strategic player who could have siphoned votes from him and because she would be a rock solid vote on the jury for him. At the same time, he could not be complicit in sending her off or she could feel bitterly double-crossed. So his strategy of allowing her to suggest, and then rejecting, having the hidden immunity idol, and giving her positive affirmation for her logic in its rejection (lack of jury respect, which seemed to exist anyway), perfectly set up a situation where she could have lost yet he would have no blame attached to it.

In other words, he read her perfectly in this situation. Just like with getting Jonathan to flip, just like with getting Adam to pledge a vote, just like adopting Ozzy to keep attention away from him and to use his wining abilities to prevent any of the ex-Raro gang from resurrecting their chances in the game. As it was, she made it with him and he won anyway, but if he was thinking along those lines (something our editor needs to ask him some time in the future), it’s another sign of his superior strategic grasp of the game.

There was a large amount of cunning and brilliance to Yul’s play, and very few mistakes. But Ozzy’s should not be underestimated, either. His strategy was simpler, but effective because it played to his strengths. Early on, he realized he was, in the words of Probst, “built” for the physical aspects of the game. As such, he had to find a strategy to shield himself from being ostracized because he would become seen as such a huge threat. He did so, by finding a way into a tight alliance that he provided great assistance to stay together to win challenges when different tribes existed, and which was more than happy for him to eliminate the possibility most of the time of non-alliance members winning when challenges became individual. He kept them on track to boots, while they kept him protected on the occasion he needed it from a boot.

Add to the respect garnered from his challenge winning was his provision ability, which kept him in the game when his position was precarious prior the mutiny (no person benefited more from the mutiny than he, forcing him to become an insider with the remaining Aitu members), and perhaps even after had Aitu ever lost an immunity challenge. In this fashion he played an interesting, even novel game where he somewhat isolated himself exactly to prevent having to be put into a situation to burn people. He could not be blamed for staying alive by winning challenge after challenge, and his other skills also brought admiration. It took him to the brink of victory against one of the most fantastic games ever played.

For this reason, this season brought an abundance of riches to what is now the Top 18 list of all time performances in Survivor. Ozzy slots in at #9 for his simple but effective strategy. Yul goes far higher; his grasp and logic puts him in the stratosphere and requires further explanation:

1. Richard
2. Yul
3. Brian
4. Ethan
5. Tina
6. Danni
7. Lex
8. Jon
9. Ozzy
10. Vecepia
11. Kathy
12. Clay
13. Neleh
14. Rob C.
15. Paschal
16. Chris
17. Twila
18. Jenna M.

Yul outranks Brian because Yul faced a number of challenges and practically always made the optimal move. Brian’s game was more one of saying what needed to be said to keep everybody in his core alliance thinking he was their jury partner, and trying to keep conditions so that nobody shared intelligence with each other. While that was an ongoing project, he really only faced one big challenge, when his tribe won immunity (largely through his efforts) at the tipping point that allowed his alliance to take a majority into the merge. By contrast, Yul had to make good choices and perform them excellently at several junctures to maximize his chances of, and then pull off, winning.

However, Yul was threatened when the mutiny occurred which was the one thing jailbird Rich actually never faced. Rich always was in control and had the ability to set up things to keep him from getting threatened the way Yul did when he got blindsided on the mutiny. But #2 isn’t bad at all, and we as viewers can only hope sometime soon we get treated to some performances that at least approximate his.

If you haven’t already done so, make sure to check out the other Finale columns already posted:

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

Be sure to sign up for our e-mail update so you can stay informed about new articles on the site! And take a look at the rest of the site. You can find all of our recaps and other info on this show at the Survivor: Cook Islands page, and take a look at our Amazing Race 9 page and our The Apprentice page. You can even buy reality show stuff at our Reality TV Store!

For more news about Survivor, be sure to check out SirLinksALot: Survivor - Cook Islands and Survivor Fever!